• ​Humanity's health is improving rapidly; life expectancy at birth increased globally from 46 years in 1950 to 71.5 years in 2015, with the 5 years increase between 2000 and 2015 being the fastest since the 1960s. Life expectancy gap between rich and poor countries continues to be significant. | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Demography;  Technology
• Epidemiologic transition: the leading causes of disease and death are shifting from infectious and acute diseases to chronic and degenerative diseases.
  | Related Megatrends: Demography; Inequalities; Consumerism
• Some tropical diseases will disappear completely.
  | Related Megatrends:  Inequalities; Technology
• Maternal deaths will continue to decrease due to improved health care and hygiene, increasing women education and awareness, reducing fertility rates, and better nutrition.
  | Related Megatrends: Technology; Demography
• World Health Organization - WHO reports that 86% of countries reviewed have set national hepatitis elimination targets and more than 70% have begun to develop national hepatitis plans to enable access to effective prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care services. Furthermore, nearly half of the countries surveyed are aiming for elimination through providing universal access to hepatitis treatment.
  | Related Megatrends:  Inequalities; Technology
• Overuse of antibiotics is increasing antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Unless changes to use of antibiotics (by humans and in agriculture) and finding of new class of antibiotics, the global annual death toll due to AMR could grow from today's estimated 700,000 peaople (one person a minute) to 10 million a year by 2050. (In Europe, infections with antibiotic-resistant bacteria have caused some 33,000 deaths in 2015.)
• Since 2000, only five new classes of antibiotics have been put on the market; none of them targets the deadliest bacteria. Note: up to 70% of antibiotics are given to animals, often for no other reason than to make them grow more quickly.)
  | Related Megatrends: Consumerism; Inequalities; Technology
• As of 2022, in the EU it will be prohibited to use antimicrobials for animals prevetivly or for growth promotion, and certain antimicrobilas might be reserved for human use only. This will also apply to non-EU countries that expoert to the EU.

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• Ischaemic heart disease and stroke have been the world’s top causes of death for the past 15 years (accounting for a combined 15 million deaths in 2015) and are expected to continue to be so for the foreseeable future.
• Low- to middle-income countries account for 85% of the world’s population and 92% of the global burden of disease. 
  | Related Megatrends: Inequality; Consumerism; Geopower
• In developed countries, bacterial infections are rising as resistance to antibiotics is becoming more common. Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is the cause of premature death of some 25,000 people in the EU and 23,000 people in the USA, yearly. By 2050, global annual death toll due to AMR could grow to 10 million people per year, from today's estimated 700,000 death per year. 
• Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (e.g. infectious diseases, HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by noncommunicable diseases, (e.g. cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes). The total mortality from infectious diseases fell from 25% in 1998 to less than 16% in 2010. The global disease burden will continue shifting from communicable to noncommunicable diseases (NCD).
• Global deaths from all communicable diseases — including AIDS, diarrhoea, malaria, and respiratory infections — are projected to continue to decline;
• HIV continues to be a major global public health issue. Globally, 1 million people died from HIV-related causes in 2016; approximately 36.7 million people were living with HIV and some 1.8 million people became newly infected. Some 54% of adults and 43% of children living with HIV are currently receiving lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART).

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• Over 70% – 41 million of total 56 million global deaths are due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) with significant differences by countries and regions.
  | Related Megatrends: Inequality; Consumerism; Geopower
• Noncommunicable conditions are projected to account for 52 million death in 2030, representing some 75% of all deaths — up from 63% (36 million people) in 2013 and 71% (41 million people) in 2016.
  | Related Megatrends: Demography; Inequality; Consumerism;   Geopower; 
• Four groups of diseases account for over 80% of all premature NCD deaths: 1. cardiovascular diseases (17.9 million people annually); 2. cancers (9.0 million); respiratory diseases (3.9million); and diabetes (1.6 million) and are expected to remain so given lifestyle paterns and aging population. | Related Megatrends: Consumerism; Geopower; Inequality
• 80% of premature heart disease, stroke and diabetes could be prevented.
• Cancer is the second leading cause of death globally, caucusing nearly 1 in 6 death. The number of new cases is expected to rise by about 70% over the next 2 decades;
• Global prevalence of diabetes among adults over 18 years of age has risen from 4.7% in 1980 to 8.5% in 2014 (some 422 million people) and WHO projects that diabetes might be the 7th leading cause of death in 2030.
• More than 85% of the ‘premature’ deaths due to NCD occur in low and middle-income countries. | Related Megatrend: Inequality; 
• In many low-income countries, communicable diseases make up the greatest component of the total disease burden, and the management of communicable diseases signifies an important challenge for health systems.
• The largest increases in NCD deaths will probably occur in Africa due to the rise of the middle class.
  | Related Megatrends: Inequality; Demography; Consumerism
• Ageing of populations in low- and middle-income countries will result in significant increase of total deaths due to NCDs.
  | Related Megatrends: Demography; Inequality

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• There is increasing attention to preventive medicine, genetic manipulation to eliminate risks (CRISPR), lifestyle changes, etc.
• The “new patient” concept implies that patients are not only a clinical concern, but also a reflection of changes in healthcare governance — resulting in both: a health-services consumer and a socio-economically responsible person.

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• Climate change is expected to cause approximately 250,000 additional deaths per year between 2030 and 2050 due to heat stress, diarrhoea, malaria, and childhood undernutrition.
  | Related Megatrends: Climate and environment
• Globally, 76% of the population derives most of their daily protein from plants. If CO2 levels continue to rise as projected, researchers estimate that roughly an additional 150 million people may be placed at risk of protein deficiency because of elevated levels of CO2 in the atmosphere.
  | Related Megatrends: Climate and environment; Natural resources 
• Changes to diet paterns — both, levels of consumption and composition — imply that the “triple burden” of undernourishment, over-nourishment and malnutrition will persist in developing countries. 
  | Related Megatrends: Consumerism; Geopower
• Some 815 million people suffered of hunger in 2016 (11% of the global population) — an increase of 38 million compared to 2015. The rates of other forms of malnutrition such as nutrient deficiency and obesity are also alarmingly high. Over 2 billion people suffer from micronutrient deficiencies, while 1.9 billion adults and 41 million children are overweight. 
  | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Natural resources 
• Malnutrition will affect over 50% of the global population by 2030, unless urgent action is taken to improve access to high-quality food. | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Natural resources 
• Air pollution:
  • Since 2010, buildings-related CO2 emissions have continued to rise by around 1% per year globally. Over 4 million deaths per year are attributable to illness from household air pollution.
  • Some 85% of the urban population in the EU is being exposed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at levels deemed harmful to health.
  • Bangalore, India's Silicon Valley might become “unliveable” in a few years. Unsustainable rapid urbanisation caused a decline of 88% in the city’s vegetation between 1973 and 2016, while water bodies declined by 85% between 2000 and 2014. If present trends continue, over the next three years, the built up area in Bangalore is expected to increase from 77% to 93%, with a vegetation cover of a mere 3%. The city's e-waste is estimated at 20,000 tonnes per year. Respiratory and other health problems have increased drastically in the city recently. | Related Megatrends: Urbanisation; Geopower; Inequalities
• Noise might become the next great public health threat given that by 2100, some 84% of the world's population will live in cities, surrounded by a cloud of various sounds.  
  | Related Megatrends: Urbanisation; Inequalities
• Growing mobility increases the risk of global pandemics.
  | Related Megatrends: Migration; Inequalities
• The risk of new epidemics or even pandemics is rising due to potential biotech (t)error. 
  | Related Megatrends: Technology; Security

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• Diet paterns — both, levels of consumption and composition — increase the “triple burden” of undernourishment, over-nourishment and malnutrition on peoples' health, mostly in developing countries.
  | Related Megatrends: Consumerism; Geopower
• Malnutrition will affect over 50% of the global population by 2030, unless urgent action is taken to improve access to high-quality food. | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Natural resources 
• One in three European children are overweight due to high-calorie diets and sedentary lifestyles. Some 2.8 million deaths per year are associated with obesity, and conditions related to obesity absorb 7% of the EU's national health budgets.
• Globally, the absolute number of undernourished people has been on the rise since 2014, reaching an estimated 821 million people (some 11% of the population) in 2017, with significant anemia, development and other health consequences.
  | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Climate and environment; Migration; Security

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• 90% of all health R&D expenditure is targeted at problems that affect only 10% of the world’s population.
  | Related Megatrends: Inequalities;  Technology
• About 20% of health expenditure makes no or minimal contribution to good health outcomes.
• The area of cardiovascular diseases, which account for 11% of the global burden of disease, received 179 new drugs (13% of total) in the past 25 years.
• Concentration of pharmaceutical power: three companies encompassed about half of all cancer drug sales in 2013.
• Pharmaceutical industry began a shift in focus towards pharmatech, genetics and immunotherapy.
• Nearly 100 million people fall into extreme poverty each year because of health expenses. 
  | Related Megatrends: Inequalities;  Geopower
• Since 2000, only five new classes of antibiotics have been put on the market; none of them targets the deadliest bacteria. Up to 70% of antibiotics are given to animals, often for no other reason than to make them grow more quickly.)
  | Related Megatrends: Consumerism; Inequalities; Technology

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• Noncommunicable Disease (NCDs) are the leading cause of disability and death in Europe: cardiovascular disease, diabetes, cancer and respiratory disease account for 77% of the burden of disease and 86% of premature mortality.
• One in three European children are overweight due to high-calorie diets and sedentary lifestyles. Some 2.8 million deaths per year are associated with obesity, and conditions related to obesity absorb 7% of the EU's national health budgets.

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• Air pollution remains the single largest environmental health hazard in Europe, resulting in a lower quality of life due to illnesses and an estimated over 500,000 premature deaths (1) per year.
• Some 85% of the urban population (2) in the EU is being exposed to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) at levels deemed harmful to health.
• Up to 30% of small particulate matter emissions (1) in European cities come from road transport. Transport in general is responsible for over 70% of CO2 emissions in the EU.
  | Related Megatrends: Urbanisation; Climate and environment 

1. EC, The future of road transport – what we will drive, if we still drive at all
2. EEA, Stronger measures needed to tackle harm from air pollution

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• The pharmaceutical industry is increasingly driven by the need to move from treatment to prevention, diagnostics and cure, therefore speeding up innovation and implementation of new technological developments.
• By 2030, the pharmaceutical industry is expected to be radically different, with a shift in focus towards pharmatech, genetics and immunotherapy.
• Internet of Life - geomonitoring of pathogens and antibacterial resistance reduces the risk of outbreaks and helps identifying drug development and administration needs. | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Technology
• FoundationOne CDx is a FDA approved “companion diagnostic” that allows to determine which drugs or therapies are best suited to individual cases of cancer patients. | Related Megatrends: Technology
• Big data can help planning better medical treatments. | Related Megatrends: Technology
• Artificial intelligence could offer the possibility to timely identify people prone to produce harm (to themselves or others), creating opportunities to intervene long before thoughts turn to action. | Related Megatrends: Technology; Security
• Many leading centres of innovation in disease management will be in the developing world.

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Assistive medical technologies; genetic engineering; highly specific drugs; molecular diagnostics and therapy tools with individualised approach at the cellular level are only some of the trends and promises of future health care.

• DNA editing of viable embryos has been efficiently accomplished using the CRISPR-Cas9 genome-editing technique, targeting a gene associated with a significant human disease. | Related Megatrends: Technology
• Some of the new technology trends impacting the future of medicine include: individual approach to human neurophysiology; RNA aptamers, microchips under the skin and pocket biosensors.
• Telomeres length monitoring and reestablishing could lead to solutions for a longer and healthier life.

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Sustainable Development Goal 3: "Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages" of the SDGs includes two targets directly related to noncommunicable diseases.

• Target 3.4 requests that countries: “By 2030, reduce by one third premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases through prevention and treatment and promote mental health and well-being”;
• Target 3.5 requests that countries: “Strengthen the prevention and treatment of substance abuse, including narcotic drug abuse and harmful use of alcohol.”

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