Aggravating resource scarcity

Megatrend

A Megatrend is a long-term driving force that is observable now and will continue to have a global impact in years to come

Humanity’s well-being depends on healthy ecosystems that can provide vital materials (such as food and water) and benefits (such as pollination, climate regulation and protection from hazards). It also depends on the availability of mineral resources, such as sand, metals and rocks used for industry and buildings. Humanity has now reached a point at which the earth’s limited resources can no longer meet the growing demand. Several planetary boundaries have already been exceeded, sounding alarms on long-term human survival. Most of the land (75%) and sea (66%) on earth has been severely altered by humans. Only 3% of the ocean is currently considered to be 'free from human pressure'.

National ‘fair shares’ for the use of natural resources over the period 1970–2017 were recently calculated and the degree to which countries have undershot or exceeded their fair share₁. The results show that the responsibility for ecological breakdown is concentrated in rich countries, who are responsible for 74% of global excess material use (USA -27% and EU-28 - 25%). China is responsible for 15% of global excess material use. This overshoot in higher-income nations is driven mostly by the use of mineral materials, whereas in lower-income nations it is by the use of biomass, with the associated impacts on biodiversity.

Addressing these challenges, (including climate change, and building resilience to disasters in the future), will have to go hand in hand with ecosystem management. A clear policy objective of decreasing material consumption in rich countries is urgently needed. Beyond a direct reduction of resources use, such an initiative will also have to ensure intergenerational fairness and global equity

This Megatrend is part of the Megatrends Hub