Trend: Sufficiency

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

The need to maintain a good quality of life and achieve a sustainable and just society in the face of the increasing pressure on natural resources is leading to the emergence of an increasing number of calls for sufficiency. This concept results from a combination of wanting to keep the material footprint of one’s way of life within the limits of sustainability, while satisfying one’s (reasonable) needs. A sufficient way of life brings added benefits in terms of resilience and strategic autonomy, as it minimises material and energy flows and reduces dependence on imports. This concept challenges the economic orthodoxy of the continuing pursuit of economic growth.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Aggravating resource scarcity

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Sufficiency transitions

It is now clear that efficiency applied to production and consumption will not be enough to halt environmental degradation, as past rebound effects have shown. An absolute decrease of consumption, especially for high-consuming classes in the areas of housing, nutrition and mobility, must be achieved. Achieving such a transition will be challenging and could take different forms (e.g. personal quotas, taxes, regulation, etc.). This will require both technical solutions (e.g. optimisation, ‘frugal tech’, servitisation of business models) and cultural and behavioural change (e.g. modal shifts in mobility e.g. from private car use to public transportation, change of social norms).

Signals of change: Elsevier, Energy Cities

Energy sufficiency

Energy sufficiency is a new concept for examining the relationship between energy use and human well-being. It estimates minimum and maximum levels in reference to the desirable social and environmental outcomes, looking for an optimal level for human development at individual and societal levels. A recent study found that a modest amount and diverse quality of energy sources is sufficient to support high-levels of human well-being.

Signals of change: MDPI, Odyssee-Mure

Digital sufficiency

Digital technologies are energy and resource intensive with their total electricity demand (production and use) accounting for 8-10% of worldwide electricity consumption. While the efficiency of ICT devices and systems is improving, the gains in efficiency are often offset by increased use. A call for digital sufficiency strategies and policies has been made in response, promoting the design of longer lasting services and the control of complexity and resource use. Such strategies aim at producing fewer devices while ensuring their lowest possible energy consumption. Digital sufficiency also addresses software to minimise data traffic and hardware use. User sufficiency is also important, because it promotes a more frugal approach to using digital technology. Finally, economic sufficiency can also be part of digital sufficiency as it views digitalisation as supporting the transition to production and consumption that remain within the planetary boundaries and avoid unbound growth.

Signals of change: D4S, Springer

Self-sufficient cities

A number of digital technologies and approaches such as recycling, circular bioeconomy, indoor agriculture, and renewables, open up the possibilities for cities to become more self-sufficient with regards to food, water and energy. The concept of self-sufficiency of cities is linked to the general hyperlocalisation phenomenon and to the disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. See also the Continuing Urbanisation Megatrend for more on cities and Increasing Consumption.

Signals of change: Cities Today, SME Futures

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• How can we encourage people to change their habits with regards to consumption to more sufficient ways of living? How can the consumption changes be supported and advance to meet the pressing environmental needs?