We foster a strategic, future-oriented and anticipatory culture in the EU policymaking process.
Scenarios on the global standing of the EU in 2040
Our reference foresight scenarios explore different possible futures for the global standing of the EU in 2040.
These foresight scenarios offer strategic reflections which can serve as a compass for decision-makers navigating under increasingly unpredictable circumstances
for stress-testing policies and policy proposals
for reflecting on future challenges and how they are linked
for developing futures literacy
These four geopolitical scenarios are called ‘reference’ scenarios because they represent a forward-looking framework that provides a reference for use in policymakers’ debates about potential futures.
The Reference Foresight Scenarios - report explains the foresight process behind the scenarios. It introduces the four scenarios of the global standing of the EU in 2040 called Storms, End game, Struggling synergies, and Opposing views. The scenarios do not claim to predict or project how the future may look like but they offer strategic reflections, which can serve as a compass for policymakers for navigating through unchartered territories of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity.
The report also presents different ways to use these scenarios in participative workshops.
Participatory workshops to stress-test or wind-tunnel policy options allow policymakers to determine whether a policy option would perform well under different and sometimes difficult circumstances and how to make them more robust. Stress-testing can play an important role in policy development and support the EU’s Better Regulation Agenda.
For a concrete example please see the report Stress-testing of Policy Options Using Foresight Scenarios: A pilot case.
The scenarios can be used to discuss the implications of future uncertainties for a particular policy field, which can help policymakers to decide on the best strategy.
The reference foresight scenarios can be used in creative foresight exercises, such as serious games. Through them, participants can develop futures literacy, discuss possible future policy designs, and gain new perspectives on the future. See for example the FuturGov serious foresight game or the Scenario Exploration System, both can be used with the set of reference foresight scenarios.
Contact us for any questions and comments.
| Originally published | 06 Nov 2023 | 18 Oct 2024 |
| Knowledge service | Metadata | Foresight |
| Related organisation(s) | JRC - Joint Research Centre |
| Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET) | foresight |
