Trend: New sources of resources

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

The growing scarcity of natural resources and the increasingly visible environmental costs of resource production and use are a driving force for the search for alternatives, whether it is for food, mobility, housing, or household goods and appliances. Technological developments and recycling are influencing the demand, supply and availability of resources, such as raw materials for appliances, or fibres for clothes. The move towards a circular economy is expected to further enhance awareness and the development and exploitation of new approaches to sourcing and using resources. In addition, new discoveries of raw material deposits are still happening.

Besides these (resource) alternatives, it is still relevant to note that much of life on Earth remains undiscovered (over 86% some claim) and scientists are still discovering new species (in 2020, hundreds of species ranging from ants, geckos, moss, frogs, fishes, seahorses, coral to flowering plants) which is most relevant for research and for the production of new medicines.
 

This Trend is part of the  Megatrend Aggravating resource scarcity

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

New avenues for energy production and use

Advances in battery technologies might lead to less dependency on scarce raw materials (such as lithium, cobalt), allow faster recharge and become available at lower costs. These benefits could further push electric mobility. Smaller electric gadgets could be powered using dispersed energy sources such as body energy. In contrast, future large scale energy supply could be provided by space-based solar power stations by 2050, which potentially could also power future mining of the moon’s resources. 

Signals of change: The Conversation, Golem, ScienceDirect: New Scientist, AAAS: Science Advances

Waste no more!

According to the World Bank, the world generated 2.01 billion tons of solid waste in 2016, including 242 million tons of plastic waste. It is estimated that by 2050 the amount of solid waste will increase to 3.40 billion tons. Recycling is one of the three R’s in the slogan for general waste reduction (i.e. reduce, reuse, recycle). New initiatives, technologies and processes are being developed to reduce waste and increase recycling, from food to circular fashion, to new types of (almost) endlessly recyclable plastics. In particular, a significant reduction of food waste, (i.e. preventing edible food waste and developing valorisation (upcycling) options for non-edible food waste), could reduce the currently important environmental impact of food production as well as limit additional burdens on limited land and water resources. Around 20% of the food produced in the EU is lost or wasted, while at the same time every second day some 33 million people cannot afford a quality meal.
 

Signals of change: The World Bank, World Economic Forum, Ellen Macarthur Foundation, AAAS:Science Advances, The Guardian, EC

New deposits and extraction methods

As the world becomes more resource hungry, the search for new deposits and unused sources of critical material intensifies. The receding ice cover in the Artic region will facilitate exploration and extraction of minerals. Greenland is expected to offer substantial amounts of rare earth oxides, there are also new findings in Norway of considerable phosphate, vanadium and titanium deposits. In parallel, efforts are underway in the pursuit to capture metals such as lithium and nickel from sources such as mining waters and soil (so-called agromining), allowing to exploit low-grade deposits in a more environmentally friendly way.

The scarcity of resources is making less accessible regions, such as the deep sea, more attractive for exploitation. The international call for an international moratorium on deep-sea mining to protect the particularly vulnerable and vastly unknown ecosystems there, might be gaining more momentum as more institutions and companies join the quest.  

Signals of change: MiMa, INM, DW.com, PHYS,org, INRAE, WWF

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• How sustainable are renewable energies? Can we secure their stable supply in the future?

• What pathways could lead to sustainable consumption and the sense of 'the global commons' (global resources)? How can we promote and implement dietary patterns to save our planet, avoid unnecessary land demand and subsequent deforestation and degradation, both in the EU but also at global level? 

• Moon, Mars and beyond: where exactly are our next frontiers to also move our waste and extract resources? 

• Consume less, consume better: how to create a systemic change in society?

• Is circular economy realistic in terms of business opportunities?