Trend: Pressure

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

Global material extraction continues to increase worldwide i.e. the extraction of natural resources such as biomass, metals, fossil fuels, non-metallic minerals and so on. The amount is expected to double between 2015 and 2060 and reach 190 billion tons. As more evidence is generated about the condition of the environment and the pressures on it, its limits are also becoming clearer. The potential of half of the ecosystems to deliver ‘services’ has decreased already today. About 54% of the demand for so-called 'regulating ecosystem services' (i.e. climate, water, and disease regulation, as well as pollination) and cultural services (i.e. educational, aesthetic, and heritage values, as well as recreation and tourism), are insecure.

A circular economy aims to minimise waste and to maintain the use and value of products, materials and resources for as long as possible. While the level of circularity in the EU did not increase between 2010 and 2017 (12% of the mass of raw materials processed), the EU is at least monitoring its progress towards a more circular economy. Globally, the Platform for Accelerating the Circular Economy reported a decrease of the circularity level of resources within two years from 9.1% to 8.6% in 2020. Furthermore, as more raw materials are used by the economies worldwide, the known reserves of oil, gas, metal and minerals are increasingly difficult to extract, also for geopolitical reasons. 
 

This Trend is part of the  Megatrend Aggravating resource scarcity

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

New pollutants

Marine pollution has become a worldwide issue affecting practically all basins from coastal to open waters systems and negatively impacting marine resources. About 80% of marine chemical pollution originates on land, and contaminants of emerging concern are being identified. New substances are being designed and produced. The seas are a final sink for chemical pollutants that affect terrestrial biota, human health and aquatic (including marine) life. The accumulation of chemical substances is putting the marine ecosystems increasingly under threat.

Microplastics add to this cocktail, having become an ubiquitous and increasing environmental contaminant with potentially negative effects on nature and humans as well as other living beings. Microplastics have been detected in marine waters, freshwater, sediments, soil, air, food and placentas. Pesticides used for agriculture are contaminating water and air, and are having an impact on soil biodiversity which is getting more attention as pesticides of all types have been found to pose a clear hazard to a wide variety of soil organisms. 

Signals of change: IPEN, Science of the Total Environment, Nature Communications, International Water Association, Frontiers in Environmental Science, SAPEA

Biodiversity decline continues

Biodiversity loss has been listed in the Top 5 Global Risks for the first time in 2020, in terms of likelihood and impact. The national risk assessment reporting processes in the EU have recommended that it be tackled. Worsened by climate change, there is a stark decline of biodiversity worldwide, and about 1 million animal and plant species (out of the 8 million estimated), are threatened with extinction within decades. 6 million terrestrial species have an insufficient habitat for long-term survival without restoration actions. This includes pollinators, which is a threat because more than 75% of global food crops rely on pollination. Restoring pollinator habitats in agroecosystems will be key to maintain our future food security.

Invasive alien species impact about 60% of urban areas and grasslands and about 40% of croplands, forest and freshwater. These are animals and plants that have been introduced into an environment where they are not normally found, with serious negative consequences. Following global trade patterns, and due to climate change, biological invasions are predicted to increase. Over-fishing unsustainable harvests is another pressing area of concern that needs to be tackled, including sustainability for half of the ocean facing industrial fishing. In combination with effective policies, technology offers tools (e.g. smartphones and machine learning) to support, conserve and monitor biodiversity and ecosystems with the help of volunteer observers and crowd sourcing. Reviving extinct species (‘de-extinction’) and banking cells from endangered species could help to improve or maintain genetic diversity. Advanced DNA sequencing now allows the decoding of the genomes of every living being, including those newly discovered every year, and can provide the opportunity to save rare and endangered ones. 

Signals of change: ipbes, Publication Office EU, World Economic Forum, Nature Communications

New Scarcities

Reaching climate targets towards a low-carbon and digital future are termed the green and digital or ‘twin transitions’. They will require an increased use of raw materials for capturing solar power, energy storage, and electric vehicles and more (e.g. for batteries, wind turbines and photovoltaic power). Estimates indicate that by 2050 we will need almost 60 times more lithium and 15 times more cobalt compared to the current supply to the EU. Recycling can provide a share of the needed raw materials, but virgin raw materials will still be largely needed. While some new metals deposits are being discovered, the general trend is towards decreasing concentration in the ores (e.g. Cu concentration in commercial ore has decreased by 75% over the past century.

Climate change - together with growing water demands due to population and economic growth - is projected to trigger water scarcity in areas in Europe and elsewhere formerly not affected by water scarcity. Irrigated agriculture, hydropower energy production, energy production that requires cooling water, and the public water sector are all at risk of future water scarcity.
Sand, a commodity needed for construction at an annual consumption of about 40 to 50 billion tons, is becoming increasingly scarce, while its sourcing threatens ecosystems. Wood, as a potentially sustainable construction material might be the next scarce resource to enter the ‘endangered’ list. Space may soon be considered to be a scarce resource on Earth. In coastal areas, spaces are becoming increasingly, incredibly tight.

Signals of change: EC, Elsevier: resources Conservation and Recycling, CNBC, DW.com

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Should we be more worried about nanoplastics than microplastics? 

• Do we have sufficient and comprehensive data to feed into the knowledge base, reporting trends and provide a full risk assessment of the pressures on resources (and scarcity)? Do we know how big the problem actually is? Can we as human, be wise and patient enough to forget about quick solutions, and wait and respect the slow pace of natural ecosystems to recover?

• If silica and lithium availability declines, what will the impact on our society be? What about teleworking, telemedicine, smart cities?

• Radiofrequencies and noise - are these the next pollutions to need management?

• Will viruses be the new pollutant and should we expect repeated, chronic epidemics?