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Competence Centre on Foresight

We foster a strategic, future-oriented and anticipatory culture in the EU policymaking process.

Page | 23 Oct 2018

Noncommunicable Diseases - NCDs

  • Over 70% – 41 million of total 56 million global deaths are due to noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) with significant differences by countries and regions.
    | Related Megatrends: Inequality; Consumerism; Geopower
  • Noncommunicable conditions are projected to account for 52 million death in 2030, representing some 75% of all deaths — up from 63% (36 million people) in 2013 and 71% (41 million people) in 2016.
    | Related Megatrends: Demography; Inequality; Consumerism;   Geopower
  • Four groups of diseases account for over 80% of all premature NCD deaths: 1. cardiovascular diseases (17.9 million people annually); 2. cancers (9.0 million); respiratory diseases (3.9million); and diabetes (1.6 million) and are expected to remain so given lifestyle paterns and aging population. | Related Megatrends: Consumerism; GeopowerInequality
  • 80% of premature heart disease, stroke and diabetes could be prevented.
  • Cancer is the second leading cause of death globally, caucusing nearly 1 in 6 death. The number of new cases is expected to rise by about 70% over the next 2 decades;
  • Global prevalence of diabetes among adults over 18 years of age has risen from 4.7% in 1980 to 8.5% in 2014 (some 422 million people) and WHO projects that diabetes might be the 7th leading cause of death in 2030.
  • More than 85% of the ‘premature’ deaths due to NCD occur in low and middle-income countries. | Related Megatrend: Inequality; 
  • In many low-income countries, communicable diseases make up the greatest component of the total disease burden, and the management of communicable diseases signifies an important challenge for health systems.
  • The largest increases in NCD deaths will probably occur in Africa due to the rise of the middle class.
    | Related Megatrends: Inequality; DemographyConsumerism
  • Ageing of populations in low- and middle-income countries will result in significant increase of total deaths due to NCDs.
    | Related Megatrends: DemographyInequality

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