Worldwide
The global middle class is expected to grow and reach 5.5 billion by 2030. Some 87% of the additional middle class population will be Asians.
Developing countries have both a growing economy and a growing consuming population, while developed countries are mostly replacement economies.
- The number of people living in extreme poverty (US$1.9/day) has been reduced from 1.85 billion (35% of world population) in 1990 to 767 million (10.7% of world population) in 2013. | Related megatrends: Geopower; Inequalities
- The size of the global middle class increased from 1.8 billion in 2009 to about 3.5 billion people in 2017 — more than half of the world population and is expected to grow to some 4 billion by 2021 and reach 5.3 billion by 2030. Some 88% of the additional middle class population will be Asians.
- China and India will represemt over 43.3% of the global middle class by 2030.
| Related megatrends: Geopower; Demography; Urbanisation - Middle class spending is expected to grow from about $37 trillion in 2017 to $64 trillion by 2030, accounting for a third of GDP growth. Most of it will be driven by the growing consuming classes in emerging economies.
| Related megatrends: Demography; Geopower - The middle-class market in advanced economies is projected to grow at only 0.5%-1% per year, while the dynamic middle-class market in emerging economies could register annual growth rates of 6% or more.
| Related megatrends:Geopower; Urbanisation; Inequalities
Developing countries have both a growing economy and a growing consuming population, while developed countries are mostly replacement economies.
Developing economies and emerging markets are expected to continue growing relatively fast, given their increasing labour force and expanding markets potential, versus the advanced economies, which are mostly replacement markets.
- Of today's global middle class, 25% lives in advanced economy countries, some 40% lives in Brazil, Russia, India, and China, while the rest lives in other developing nations.
| Related megatrends:Geopower; Urbanisation - The middle class of the BRIC countries grew from half of that of the G-7 in 2000 to double of that of the G-7 today, and continues to expand rapidly.
| Related megatrends: Geopower; Inequalities - By 2030, Asia might represent 66% of the world middle class population.
- China is already the second largest middle class in absolute terms, at 157 million consumers (the top largest is the USA) and is expected to grow further. | Related Megatrends: Geopower; Demography
- By 2030, over 70% of China’s population could be middle class, consuming nearly $10 trillion in goods and services and India could be the world’s largest middle class consumer market, surpassing both China and the USA.
| Related Megatrends: Geopower; Inequalities; Urbanisation - By 2020, the middle class in each, Brazil, Mexico, Pakistan, Indonesia, and, a few years later, Egypt, Nigeria, and Vietnam could be over 100 million people. The Philippines and Thailand could have middle classes as large as in the United Kingdom, France, or Italy. | Related Megatrends: Geopower; Demography
- In fast-growing emerging and developing countries, middle-class spending rose by over 10% per year in the 1990s and 12.5% annually between 2005 and 2015.
- The middle-class market in advanced economies is projected to grow at only 0.5%-1% per year, while the dynamic middle-class market in emerging economies could register annual growth rates of 6% or more.
| Related megatrends:Geopower; Urbanisation; Inequalities - The SDG Index and Dashboards Report 2017 shows that OECD countries face major challenges in meeting several SDGs, mostly on sustainable consumption and production (SDG12), climate change (SDG13), clean energy (SDG7), and ecosystem conservation (SDGs14 and 15); data on each spillover indicator show that high-income countries tend to generate negative SDG spillover effects for poorer developing countries (countries with larger spillover: Switzerland, Singapore, Luxemburg, Netherlands, United Arab Emirates, USA, Belgium, UK.) | Related Megatrends: Natural resources; Inequalities; Climate and environment
- Unless consumers' behaviour and consumption patterns change, by 2030, demand for food, water and energy will increase by approximately 35%, 40% and 50% respectively, compared to 2012.
- Estimates for increasing energy demand by 2040 vary between 35% (BP) to 29% (IEA and Shell) and 0% (IEA “sustainable development scenario”) compared to 2016.
| Related megatrends: Natural resources; Climate and environment - Per capita energy demand will peak before 2030, due to increased efficiency enabled by new technologies and stricter energy policies. | Related megatrends: Natural resources; Technology
- Of the 78 million tonnes of plastic produced annually, only 14% is collected for recycling, while 40% ends up in lanfields, 32% of it is "leaked" into the environment and another 14% gets incinerated or into energy recovery.
- Some 12 million tonnes of plastic are entering our oceans each year. If current trends continue, there could be more plastics (by weight) than fish in the ocean by 2050.
| Related megatrends: Consumerism; Climate and environment - An estimated 88 million tonnes of food is wasted in the EU per year – some 173 kilograms per person. Households and processing account for 72 % of it. | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Natural resources; Climate and environment
Europe
The European middle class has been eroding in the past decade, due to the economic turmoil as well changing work conditions and further increases of unemployment, especially among young people.
- The European middle class has been eroding in the past decade, due to the economic turmoil as well changing work conditions and further increases of unemployment, especially among young people. | Related Megatrends: Work; Geopower; Inequalities
- The share of the European and American middle classes will decrease from 50% in 2016 to just 22% of world's total, by 2030. | Related Megatrends: Geopower; Demography
- A sort of "vicious circle" has developed: the crisis has weakened the middle class, which in turn reduced aggregate demand, thereby deepening and prolonging downturn.
| Related Megatrends: Work; Geopower; Inequalities - In Germany, the income share of the middle-income group has fallen from 68% in 1991 to 59% by 2013. | Related Megatrends: Work; Geopower; Inequalities
- An estimated 88 million tonnes of food is wasted in the EU per year – some 173 kilograms per person. Households and processing account for 72 % of it. | Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Natural resources; Climate and environment
Originally Published | Last Updated | 31 Aug 2018 | 27 Sep 2018 |
Knowledge service | Metadata | Foresight | The Megatrends Hub | Growing consumerism |
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET) | consumer behaviourdistribution of incomefood wastepurchasing power parityquality of lifeyouth unemploymentconsumer protectionlabour marketpopulation statisticssocial statistics |
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