Trend: Hybrid and cyber-threats by foreign actors

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

Hybrid threats, i.e. combined methods of warfare (overt and covert) have increased in speed, scale and intensity, fuelled by digital technologies and hyperconnectivity. The overarching objective of the users of such methods is to undermine public trust in democratic institutions, challenge the core values of societies, gain geopolitical influence and weaken the decision-making capacity of countries. Finding effective strategies and responses to such threats will require building trust and coordination among EU Member States, as well as the capacity to work systematically across policy domains in order to anticipate challenges and risks.

Some of the EU’s geopolitical rivals use hybrid threats against the EU through state and non-state actors. They exploit divisions in society, leading to more societal instability. The COVID-19 crisis showed an increase in the number of cyberattacks against critical infrastructures. Europe will need to increase its technological sovereignty and its cybersecurity and to protect its democratic values and institutions against such foreign and non-state actor threats.
 

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Increasing influence of new governing systems

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Foreign state actors disrupting democratic governments

Hybrid threats are increasingly being used as a tool by authoritarian states in their fight against democratic state systems that they perceive to be an existential threat to their power position (e.g. Russian hybrid warfare). This perception is one reason why they feel the need to try and undermine and weaken the capabilities of democratic states. Manipulative interference in the information domain is one of their main assets. One of the most used tools, is manipulation via disinformation on social media which has increased chances to influence and target certain audiences (via microtargeting). 

The EU is trying to improve its capacities against hybrid threats. For example the East StatCom Task Force was set up in 2015 to address Russia's ongoing disinformation campaigns.

Signals of change: JRC, Hybrid, ISS, CEPA

Non-state actors in hybrid threats context

Hyperconnectivity and the penetration of digital technologies in our everyday lives has increased and bolstered the role of non-state actors in hybrid threats who, through interference, are putting pressure on democratic states. The non-state actors could be corporations, non-governmental organizations, or armed non-state actors.  They are often used by state actors to hide their own operations against other states. For example, China is engaged in hybrid threats with the same rationale of undermining democratic norms, but their key element is the use of non-armed non-state actors (based on manipulative and coercive tactics). Identification of these proxies and understanding their strategic culture is key to countering hybrid threats.

Signals of change: Hybrid CoE, JRC

Digital disruptions of society 

The development of AI technologies enables state and non-state actors to have new tools for disrupting critical infrastructures. The number of cyber-attacks is increasing every year. There has been an expansion of the role of 'cyber' following the emergence of the COVID-19 pandemic, and  an exponential increase in the number of cyberattacks and cybercrime in Europe and worldwide (e.g. attempts to hack hospitals). 

Signals of change: 

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• How could the EU/Europe increase its technological sovereignty, and with it, cybersecurity? 

• How can the EU/Europe protect its critical infrastructures against malicious attacks?

• How can the EU/Europe protect its democratic values and institutions against such threats?