Megatrend

A Megatrend is a long-term driving force that is observable now and will continue to have a global impact in years to come

Governing systems around the world are multiple and diverse. The expanding influence of non-state actors, the rising interest in more participatory forms of governance, the decline of traditional media and the prominence of digital media platforms are forming new, multi-layered governing systems over traditional decision-making structures. The use of digital technologies is altering the ways in which democracy functions.

Despite increasingly innovative practices in governments,the digital transformation of governments, and the modernisation of public administration, a global decline of democracy is occurring worldwide. Increasing polarisation in society poses a risk for democratic systems and institutions. The appeal to emotions and personal beliefs is becoming more influential than objective facts.

This Megatrend is part of the Megatrends Hub
 

Timeline

The driving forces of the Megatrend change over time. This timeline indicates more established and newer trends that are influencing the future direction of the Megatrend

Trends

They indicate a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society. 

Decoupling trust from truth

Post-truth politics is characterised by the relativisation of truth and facts. The appeal to emotions and personal beliefs is more influential than objective facts. Politics has become, thus, disconnected from policy.

Automated decision-making impacting society

The pervasiveness of digital technologies is leading to an increase of automated decision-making (ADM) (as well as all its other impacts). ADM is a process whereby decisions are made by automated means and without human involvement. What is particularly important in relation to ADM is that these systems have fairness, accountability, transparency and ethical biases built into them. Therefore they have an impact on human rights.

Collective intelligence

There has been an increased need for the use of collective intelligence in policy making to tackle problems for which broad societal agreements are needed. Collective intelligence is the process by which diverse individuals gather and share their knowledge, data and skills to solve societal issues. The requests to have a more participatory democracy, one that includes and engages with citizens is growing around the world. While technology can facilitate this process, offline citizen engagement has not been abandoned yet.

Innovations in government

There is a growing need to build up new types of methods, structures and capacities to anticipate extreme events, influence socio-technical shifts and make visions of more desired future actionable now. We are fundamentally rethinking the way we do public policy and deliver value.

Media under pressure

The news industry is transforming under several constraints, and its transformation is especially driven by economic models and digital technology. The role of traditional media and journalism is changing, with more pressure on journalists to produce news extremely quickly and to focus more on soft (entertainment/infotainment) than on hard (political affairs) news, thus leaving little space for investigative journalism. The 24h news cycle puts requirements on journalists to search quickly for information to publish, sometimes without verifications and/or fact-checking. Digital platforms represent an additional pressure, taking away the traditional source of income via advertising. There is an increasing need for democratic governments to support quality media production.

Previously Covered Trends

These are trends that were spotted in the past, and might have grown or faded away in time.

• Digital transformation of public administration and services
• Non-state actors
• Digitalization
• New governance models
• Innovation in public administration

Future Snapshots

A future snapshot shows a plausible image of what might happen in the future in relation to this Megatrend. It is a creation built using knowledge and imagination. These snapshots presented here are excerpts of inspiring future-oriented reports written by other colleagues and organisations.

DIY Democracy

"Technologies such as Augmented Reality or Virtual Reality help build a shared understanding of societal and individual needs through virtual simulations. Mainstream media outlets are not trusted. Instead, digital platforms are the main form of communication among citizens. They enable grassroots engagement activities, knowledge sharing, and co-creation of community services. Citizens who support each other through different DIY initiatives and the creation of DIY public services (e.g. peer-to-peer online and offline education courses) as the quality of public services provided by the government is not satisfying.  The decentralization of governance helps citizens have a bigger impact on politics through the local levels. Liquid democracy was introduced in all EU municipalities, where citizens either vote directly or elect delegates (instead of representatives) who are closer to them. These delegates are chosen on the principle of mutual trust and identification with their mind-sets and identities. The society has strong shared values, strong societal inclusion, and rich social capital."

Other sketched scenarios are: Private algocracy, Super collaborative government, Over-Regulatocracy

The Future of Government: 2030+ - JRC (2019)

Complex prosperity

"Society has inched forward to create a more sustainable planet, but how sustainable it is, is not clear. We live in a world of relative economic prosperity and multilateralism. There are efforts towards the joint governance of the commons. In this multilateral world, a focus on strategic autonomy has equipped the EU with the ability to participate in setting the global agenda. The EU is still able to attract Eastern European countries away from Russian influence. The US and China are economic leaders in global trade that offers growth and prosperity for the most part. The EU remains a part of this globally trading world, but continues to lag behind in the latest research and innovation trends. Citizens are supportive of the EU’s ecological ambitions, but they now reject traditional governance systems. They feel excluded by experts and are more prone to embracing conspiracy theories and believing in ‘alternative facts."

Other sketched scenarios are: Green leadership, Economic growth above all, Retreat inwards

Shaping and securing the EU's Open Strategic Autonomy – JRC (2021) 

The small under global rule

"This scenario implies a system with a dense set of specific institutions that contain patterns of authority, legitimation, and the presence of general normative principles that are general and sector‐spanning, in order that deal with and coordinate the existence of small firms. […] At least prima facie, governments have the capacity to solve big, global, problems and to provide global public goods. But there are also costs of coordination, fragility and political disaffection.[…] Among several other policies, there is strong need for widespread education, for a global revenue system, for diffusion of technology and data ownership regulations. Therefore, technological breakthroughs could be further shared, and platforms presented as public goods. […] Since the economy works at a local level, technological developments are meant to foster efficiency at a local level, generating highly personalized outcomes. This can produce tensions between personalized, local factors and global governance structures […]” 

Other sketched scenarios are: Big foot in a local world, Big Friendly Giant, Small is beautiful

Global Governance in 2030 - Julia Pomares, Bélen Abdala for CIPPEC (2018) 

Further Reading

Want to explore more? Some interesting readings below:

●    A Citizen-centric perspective on new governance models  - JRC
●    Policy implications and recommendations  - JRC
●    Understanding the influence of online technologies on political behaviour and decision-making  - JRC
●    Tackling online disinformation - European Commission

This Megatrends hub is a repository of foresight related information. It highlights long-term driving forces and its underlying shorter-term trends. This repository can help you understand the changing society in a broad and more systemic way. 

Disclaimer: this repository is by no means comprehensive and apart from established scientific knowledge contains also issues which are subject to scientific debate and where research is ongoing or only starting to give the reader some insights and ways to further explore the topics in more depth.