KEY MESSAGES:

1. The food crisis is growing and is highly exacerbated by insecurity, inflation and the adverse effects of climate change

   • The 2022-2023 agropastoral season was generally satisfactory, but cereal production per capita declined. Cereal production, estimated at more than 77 million tonnes, is up 6% from the average of the last five years and 8% from last year. However, output per capita is down 2% compared to the average of the last five years. Tuber and root production is estimated at 212 million tonnes, an increase of 10% over the five-year average. Production of cash crops is also up except for cotton, which is down 1% compared to the five-year average. Fodder availability and watering conditions for livestock are relatively satisfactory but access remains difficult in insecure areas.

   • Food and nutrition insecurity is affecting more and more people. The number of food insecure people increased by 32.8 million, from 9.7 million in June-August 2019 to 42. 5 million people in June-August 2023. In addition, 107.5 million people would be under pressure during the 2023 lean season and could fall into crisis in the event of shocks, particularly in Nigeria (64 million), Niger (7.3 million) and Burkina Faso (5.1) million. Malnutrition also remains a concern with nearly 16.5 million children under five affected in Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger. This tense food and nutrition situation is the result of interconnected crises:

     • Civil insecurity causing more than 7. 5 million internally displaced persons deprived of their means of subsistence (housing, productive capital, social network) and access to education and health.

     • Persistent inflation undermines households' ability to access sufficient nutritious food. Inflation remains a concern (18% on average in the region). It is fuelled by the persistence of barriers to regional trade (illegal levies, taxes, and bans on grain exports), rising transport costs, currency depreciation in Nigeria, Ghana, and Sierra Leone, and the consequences of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. This caused a sharp rise in the prices of the main cereals of 25 to 40% compared to the average of the last five years, with peaks in Ghana (+100%), Sierra Leone (+100%), Nigeria (+50%) and Burkina Faso (+50%), and particularly in areas of insecurity.

     • The worsening adverse effects of climate change also continue to impact the region’s food systems, including severe disruptions in rainfall patterns, low availability of water for irrigation, flooding, etc.

   • Food and humanitarian assistance alleviate suffering, but on its own does not provide a sustainable solution to recurrent food and nutrition crises. Similarly, it leads to an increasing financial needs in a context of strong financial stress at the level of States and their partners. This situation reminds of the need for greater political commitment to the effectiveness of the response, prioritising investment in resilience, in synergy with emergency response.

2. Persistent insecurity exacerbates the crisis of agropastoral territories, further aggravating food and nutrition insecurity

   • Insecurity in the Sahel and West Africa is spreading, and violence is intensifying. The Sahel and West Africa region has experienced an exponential increase in the number of outbreaks of violence in recent years with 10,000 incidents between 2020 and 2021, representing an increase of 180% per year compared to the period 2015-2019. In the same period, the number of victims has increased by 521% per year. This violence is spreading to coastal countries, particularly northern Benin, and Togo.

   • The agro-pastoral economy is highly weakened with implications in terms of loss of income and livelihoods for the affected populations. The combination of pastoral and security crises is taking a heavy toll on pastoralists, agropastoralists and other actors in the pastoral economy (private vets, traders, etc.). The consequences of insecurity are multifaceted: inaccessibility to grasing land and markets, prohibition of transhumance in some countries, cattle theft associated with loss of life, dropping out of school, and recruitment of young people by armed groups. Insecurity particularly threatens the future of young agropastoralists who have lost their bearings and are looking for opportunities.