Key Messages

• The ocean plays an important role in global food provision and has the potential to play a much more significant role through increased mariculture (i.e. aquaculture that occurs in the sea) production, and to a lesser extent, traditional capture fisheries production.

• Improved management and judicious conservation of exploited wild fisheries result in more biomass in the ocean, higher profits for fishers and an increase in food provision (over 40 percent more production compared to future production under ‘business as usual’ and 20 percent more than what is currently produced).

• The major threat to improved capture fisheries outcomes is overfishing, which is driven by illegal fishing, capacity-enhancing subsidies, a lack of alternative livelihoods, a lack of incentives to protect the underlying resource, poor local and institutional governance and less than optimal management. Other important threats include climate change, environmental variability, habitat degradation and pollution.

• Sustainably expanding unfed mariculture (i.e. mariculture of species that do not depend on feed inputs for nutrition, such as bivalves and seaweed) can substantially increase nutritious food and feed with a lower impact on the marine environment, and may in some cases enhance wild fisheries by creating artificial habitats.

• Significantly expanding fed mariculture (i.e. mariculture of species that rely on feed inputs for nutrition, such as finfish and crustaceans) in a sustainable way is possible but will require major innovations in feed so production is not limited by capture fisheries.

• Under optimistic projections regarding alternative mariculture feed innovations and uptake, the ocean could supply over six times more food than it does today (364 million metric tons of animal protein).

• This represents more than two-thirds of the edible meat that the FAO estimates will be needed to feed the future global population.
  While the supply of food from the sea can expand significantly, demand for these products will depend on prices, consumer preferences, income and national and local capacities to implement novel management approaches.

• Low-income and food-deficit countries, as defined by FAO, depend more heavily on fish for their animal protein. Fish are particularly important in small island developing states in tropical regions, which are most vulnerable to climate change and suffer from weak fishery management and unsustainable mariculture development. Improving fisheries management and mariculture sustainability can pay large dividends to these countries in the form of food from the sea.

• The potential for increased production and consumption of food from the sea will depend on physical factors (such as ocean warming and pollution), policy (such as fishery and climate policy), technology (such as advances in aquaculture feed and offshore mariculture technology and farming systems) and institutions (such as property rights and trade).

• While some policy interventions can result in win-win situations, many policies that enhance ocean food provision come with trade-offs. Policymakers should carefully consider the pros and cons associated with different policy options, including inaction, and how different stakeholders may be affected by them.

• Effective policy interventions regarding the future of food from the sea will vary by country depending on each country’s objectives and constraints. Therefore, there is not a one-size-fits-all policy for enhancing food from the sea. We outline a framework that policymakers and scientists can use to inform regional decision-making regarding the future of food from the sea given their unique contexts.