Highlights:

Africa’s food systems need to provide sufficient affordable, nutritious food for Africa’s population, whilst generating income and employment to support the continent’s economic and social development. However, the long-term functioning of food systems relies on natural capital – the natural resources and ecosystems that provide the inputs needed for food production. These resources are currently being depleted and degraded at an alarming rate, with significant impacts on biodiversity, climate change, and ultimately, on the ability of food systems to fulfil their functions.

The report analyses the main trends and drivers of Africa’s food systems, how food systems have responded to these drivers, and what the resulting environmental impacts of these responses have been across the continent. It identifies policy-levers for engagement in the food systems space and concludes with recommendations on how to move away from an unsustainable “business as usual” trajectory.

FOOD SYSTEMS DRIVERS

Food systems encompass the entire range of actors and their interlinked value-adding activities involved in the production, aggregation, processing, distribution, consumption and disposal of food products that originate from agriculture, forestry or fisheries, and food industries. They also include the broader economic, societal and natural environments in which these actors are embedded. The actors are influenced by local, national, continental and global trends and drivers, which affect the food system context. A review of six forward-looking reports on African agriculture and food systems identified the following main drivers and their trends impacting on food systems:

● Population growth - increasing food demand overall and thereby increasing pressures on natural resources (land, water, energy).

● Urbanization - linked to dietary changes, in particular an increasing consumption of processed foods and food of animal origin, but also changes in employment patterns, away from agriculture-based livelihoods.

● A growing middle class - with increased incomes, driving the dietary shift and changing food distribution systems away from informal to more formal outlets.

● Increasing regional trade within Africa - enabling countries that are unable to meet their food demand from domestic production to access food via regional rather than global imports.

● Climate change - reducing agricultural productivity and increasing the risk of crop and livestock production, and thereby accelerating further agricultural expansion.

● Technological innovations and change in all sectors - including information and communication technology (ICT) and agricultural value chains – providing opportunities to monitor and reduce environmental impacts.

● Sources of capital and investment - with an increase in the proportion of foreign direct investment in Africa as compared to development aid.

● Governance factors (policies, institutions, markets) - determining the willingness and ability to regulate the sector effectively.

● Global disruptions (conflicts, pandemics, etc.) - disrupting supply chains and forcing people into unsustainable, environmentally harmful livelihoods.

For most of these drivers, their direction is known, but not their future magnitude. The last two drivers are particularly uncertain, but also highly influential, with governance-related factors providing the main levers for influencing food systems.

FOOD SYSTEMS RESPONSES

African food systems have adapted to these drivers in different ways, depending on context-specific opportunities and challenges. The main responses at continental level are manifested in cropland and pasture expansion, changes to farming practices (including increasing use of external inputs, mechanization, and irrigation), and development of agricultural value chains through investments in food processing and distribution.

Agricultural expansion is primarily driven by increases in demand for agricultural commodities because of domestic population and consumption growth, reinforced by changes in diets and lifestyles, trade, climate change and land degradation (driven by unsustainable farming methods), and lack of alternative income and employment opportunities. Unlike in other parts of the developing world, most of the land use change and deforestation in Africa during the past two decades, both in protected areas and overall, has been the result of food crop production for subsistence and for the local market, with only a small proportion resulting from export-oriented agriculture (although export crop production is an important driver of land use change in some countries). The opportunities for further cropland expansion are limited, with most available land concentrated in a few countries.

African governments have committed to ambitious targets to reverse land degradation and protect natural habitats, and hence supporting agricultural intensification is the main policy response to increasing food demand. However, attempts to increase agricultural productivity have often been associated with the adoption of unsustainable farming practices that contribute to land degradation, negative off-site impacts from agrochemicals, the extraction of water for irrigation, and reduced agrobiodiversity. While agroecological and regenerative farming practices have been promoted for decades, these are receiving limited technical, financial and policy support, and adoption rates remain low.

Agricultural mechanization levels are still very low across the continent, but are likely to increase in the future, with potentially negative impacts on emissions and soil properties – unless investments in renewable solutions are stepped up significantly. Irrigation is considered by many African governments to be a key strategy for increasing agricultural productivity. However, extraction of water for irrigation and clearing land near water bodies can also alter the natural patterns of water quality and quantity and disrupt morphological features of water systems, to the detriment of aquatic biodiversity.

Food processing and distribution on the continent are still largely carried out by informal sector actors, but this is changing rapidly – in particular in urban areas. Initiatives such as the African Union’s Common Africa Agro-Parks (CAAPs) aim to attract private investments to establish transboundary mega agro-industrial hubs – but the potential environmental impacts of these investments are yet to be assessed.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF FOOD SYSTEM RESPONSES

Cropland and pasture expansion, combined with the use of unsustainable farming practices, contribute significantly to the loss, fragmentation, and degradation of habitats and thus to biodiversity loss. The specific environmental impacts of cropland expansion depend on the importance (in terms of biodiversity and ecosystem services - other than agriculture) of the land use that is being replaced and the characteristics of the farming practices used in the new cropland. It also depends on the speed at which cropland expansion happens, and the resulting spatial pattern of land use. Patchy conversion patterns lead to the fragmentation of existing forests and natural habitats, and hence to a reduction in the number and abundance of species that can be supported on unconverted land.

Food systems are both a contributor to and a victim of climate change, with agricultural productivity being negatively affected by changes in rainfall and temperatures. Agriculture is a main contributor of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. In Africa, food systems emissions have so far mainly (to the extent of 55%) been the result of land use changes – but emissions from agricultural mechanization, production and use of inputs (in particular fertilizer), processing and transport are on the rise. On the other hand, there are also significant opportunities for the use of renewable energy in food systems that could counter this trend.

SPATIAL PATTERN OF IMPACT

Cropland expansion is a major factor in the loss and fragmentation of habitats with a spatial impact that varies significantly across the continent, depending on soil type, relief, and climate, among other factors. The report provides examples of cropland expansion at the continental scale, with illustrations of its impact in relation to areas of forest loss and impacts on Key Biodiversity Areas at a more detailed scale. The results indicate that, whilst in some areas forest loss is a consequence of cropland expansion, significant areas of forest loss are outside areas of cropland expansion, suggesting that other factors, such as logging, mining, infrastructure development and human settlements are also responsible.

LEVERS FOR CHANGE – TRANSFORMING FOOD SYSTEMS SUSTAINABLY

Intervention options to steer away from BAU and support a trajectory towards sustainable food systems, which bring about economic, social and environmental benefits to producers and consumers, exist in three main areas:

(a) Changing food production. This includes interventions to change the way farming is done, to include increased carbon storage, agrobiodiversity, and productivity. Specific levers include policies to secure land rights for small scale farmers to incentivize sustainable land management, and investments in appropriate green technology and infrastructure. It also includes the redirection of subsidies towards locally led innovation and adaptation, to generate solutions that work in the local context. Specific considerations related to agricultural production pathways are:

● Sustainable agriculture could deliver on productivity increase to avoid excessive farmland expansion. However, there are often trade-offs between intensification and conservation objectives.

● The proportion of medium- to larger farms is likely to continue to grow and export-oriented production will probably increase – posing increasing environmental threats, but also opportunities for the development, adaptation and scaling out of sustainable practices.

● Poverty is driving unsustainable agricultural practices and cropland expansion in most of Africa, hence improving the livelihoods of poor farmers is an important component of a more sustainable pathway.

(b) Planning where to grow, including restoring and protecting ecosystems. This includes setting aside land for biodiversity, improving the governance and management of, and sharing of benefits from protected areas, and restoring degraded landscapes (as land degradation contributes to cropland expansion). There is a risk that value chain investments near KBA / biodiversity hotspots / protected areas may attract more farmers to these areas, increasing the pressure overall. Also, the environmental impact of value chain development (from pollution, water use etc.) can be locally significant, unless appropriate safeguards are in place.

(c) Influencing food demand and consumption. This involves bringing about dietary changes through public awareness, appropriate food imports and regulations on food quality. It also includes a strong commitment to and investments in reducing food waste and losses and increasing recycling. These levers relate to the following realities with regards to food demand and cropland expansion:

● Domestic food demand (as opposed to export-oriented production) is and will remain the main driver for cropland expansion in most of SSA.

● Most cropland expansion has so far been driven by smallholder farmers and not by commercial farms. However, the proportion of medium- to larger farms is likely to continue to grow and export-oriented production will probably increase.

● Cropland expansion will undoubtedly continue (and likely along the currently observed frontiers).

● Ambitions to achieve national food self-sufficiency have not always considered comparative advantages for food and nature – for example, the extent to which a country’s natural resources are better suited for food grain production, cash crop production or ecotourism.

● Urban diets (and, increasingly, rural diets) in Africa are becoming unhealthier, whilst food waste and losses indirectly contribute to cropland expansion.

● Land degradation also contributes to cropland expansion – by taking land out of production. As a crosscutting theme, policy incoherences at national level contribute to competition for land and a lack of strategic interventions for land use. Hence there is a need to harmonize policies and address trade-offs resulting from competing policy objectives.

If food system responses continued along the existing trajectories, the threats to biodiversity and natural capital would mount further, with far reaching consequences. Scenario development can be used to explore alternatives to a “business as usual” (BAU) trajectory – either in a participatory way with stakeholders, or as a quantitative research tool to inform modelling. The report presents an example for a generic (continental) scenario process including an example from Zambia.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Several general recommendations can be drawn from this report. These are necessarily broad, addressing sustainable food systems development for a whole continent with vastly different socioeconomic and natural resources. They are meant as a starting point for more nuanced discussions at country level:

● Develop and implement coherent policies that acknowledge and manage trade-offs and bridge the gap between sectoral silos;

● Invest in increasing agricultural productivity in a sustainable way;

● Support poor farmers in a transition to sustainable agricultural (or, in some cases, non-agricultural) livelihoods;

● Invest in environmentally and socially responsible value chain development; and

● Increase awareness of healthy sustainable diets.