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  • Publication | 2025
Evaluating the impact of two decades of USAID interventions and projecting the effects of defunding on mortality up to 2030: a retrospective impact evaluation and forecasting analysis
Global Food and Nutrition Security

Key messages:

  • It is estimated that in the period 2001-2021, USAID funding have prevented 91.8 million deaths,  including 30.4 million deaths in children younger than 5 years, in Low-Middle Income Countries 

  • High levels of USAID funding per capita were associated with a 15% reduction in all- age and all-cause mortality, a 65% reduction in mortality from HIV/AIDS, a 51% reduction from malaria, and a 50% reduction from neglected tropical diseases. 

  • Strong associations between USAID funds per capita were also found for diarrhoeal diseases, nutritional deficiencies, lower respiratory infections, maternal mortality, and tuberculosis 

  • in 2025, reductions in USAID funding are estimated to result in approximately 1.78 all-age deaths and 689 900 deaths in children younger than 5 years 

  • From 2025 to 2030, cuts in USAID funding would cause approximately 2.45 million all-age deaths per year, of which around 700 000 in children younger than 5 years 

  • IN the entire period 2025-2030, cuts in USAID funding are estimated to determine in total 14 million additional deaths, of which 4.5 million in children under 5 years.