The overall aim of the project is to better understand trends and drivers impacting the EU Customs ecosystem and possible paths for how this system could develop by 2040. The project will empower policymakers and stakeholders to engage in strategic reflections and create the EU Customs ecosystem of the future.

The Future of Customs in the EU 2040 report is an outcome of a year-long foresight process. Its aim is to support strategic reflection on the future of the European Union’s Customs Union, its relevance and its effectiveness in the long-term. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) undertook the project in collaboration with the Directorate-General for Taxation and Customs Union (DG TAXUD). Being participatory and multidisciplinary is an inherent part of any foresight process, and thus it involved all relevant stakeholder groups: including representatives of Member States, key trading partners, trade associations, businesses, consumer organisations, international organisations, academia, and different services and Directorates-General of the European Commission. 

Foresight serves policymakers in identifying, understanding and directing change, and thus supports the creation of policies that are more robust and fit for the long-term future. To that end, four scenarios of how customs in the European Union could look in 2040, have been created. Further, the exploration of the scenarios and insights from the process fed into a vision-building process, which resulted in a co-created vision for EU Customs in 2040. The foresight process also included a first reflection on how the vision can be reached. Part I of the report presents the summarised outcomes of the foresight methods used, and Part II provides detailed outputs and methodology. The step-by-step process descriptions in Part II can be useful for future foresight initiatives in customs or related policy areas.

The Future of the Customs Report

The Future of Customs in the EU 2040: Results from a Real-time Delphi survey

Videos about the Future of the Customs project and scenarios