- Instead of a series of lines connecting major trading hubs in Europe and North America, the global trading system has expanded into a complex, intricate, sprawling web. These types of connections have paused during the economic turmoil of 2008 and have recovered only slowly since.
- The world trade system is under attack with trade wars of some major; spiral of additional tariffs could lead to severe disruptions in global value chains and in the longer-term to reduce growth prospects.
- Asia recorded the highest regional trade growth from 2008 to 2018. The intra-regional trade rises as emerging economies’consumption is increasing strongly. In 2018, its trade flows were 1.5 times higher than its 2008 levels. China, Viet Nam and India were the most dynamic traders among all Asian economies; “South-South” trade represented an estimated US$ 4.28 trillion or 52% of total developing economies’ exports in 2018. | Related Megatrends: Demography; Consumerism
- China and the EU account for about 50% of global trade. Europe is China’s largest trading partner and China is Europe's primary source of imports. Europe’s annual foreign investment flows with China have been about double of those of the USA.
| Related Megatrends: Inequality; Demography - Several EU countries express concerns about China’s acquisitions of hi-tech European companies, mostly of dual-use technologies.
| Related Megatrends: Technology; Security - An important factor in growing Asian exports are the low labour costs. However, some 58% of the 45.8 million people estimated by the Global Slavery Index to be subject to some form of modern slavery in 2016 globally, are living in 5 Asian countries: India, China, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Uzbekistan. Nevertheless, the labour cost arbitrage is declining in its relevance in the trade of goods; it is currently relevant for less than 20% of goods trade.
| Related Megatrends: Inequalities; Security - World trade of services is more dynamically growing than the one of goods. Global trade in services could increase by 50% by 2040. Emerging economies, like China, India, Brazil are becoming faster service-based than advanced ones. Rising income drives the consumption of knowledge-intensive services that are still highly concentrated in advanced economies. Climate change can disrupt services, like in tourism, and increases the demand of environmental services. Digital technologies will drive global trade of services even further. Demographic change determines the need for education, digital services, health. Related Megatrends: Technology; Consumerism; Inequality; Demography
- China-Africa trade increased more than 200 times over the past 40 years -- ftom USD$765 million in 1978 to USD$170 billion in 2017, gaining another 17.7% in the first part of 2018.
The African continent could mimic China’s rapid raise over the next 50 years, if structural reforms to overcome institutional lethargy and corruption will continue and accelerate. The further integration of the African Union to a borderless Africa could unleash a USD2.5 trillion African economy. 24 million people more will live in cities each year between 2015 and 2045, that will increase consumption. Africa showed already its potential to fully exploit the potential of new technologies, e.g. with rapid adaptation of mobile phones or mobile banking, or drones to deliver medical facilities or blood in remote areas of Rwanda (“Zipline”) – new digital technologies could deliver innovative solutions for core challenges in Africa. STEM education initiatives contribute to building the needed capabilities.
| Related Megatrends: Urbanisation; Consumerism; Demography;- Chinese aims to become world leader in science and innovation by 2050. In 2017, China's R&D spending was about $378.6 billion (PPP), accounting for 21% of total world R&D expenditure, with the rate of R&D investment growth significantly exceeding that of the U.S. and the EU.
- India's digital sector might be a $1 trillion economy by 2023. Some 50% of the country's 1.25 billion people, 600 million are under 25 years old, while 65% is 35 or younger.
| Related Megatrends: Consumerism; Demography; Technology;
Originally Published | Last Updated | 11 Oct 2018 | 30 Mar 2020 |
Knowledge service | Metadata | Foresight | The Megatrends Hub | Expanding influence of east and south |
Digital Europa Thesaurus (DET) | economic growthglobalisationinternational tradenew technologypopulation dynamicstrade relations |