Trend: Big City Life

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

The latest UN projections suggest that the world’s population could increase to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and to 9.7 billion in 2050, before reaching a peak at around 10.4 billion people during the 2080s and remaining at that level until 2100. The population living in cities, (high-density places of at least 50,000 inhabitants), has more than doubled over the last 40 years, going from 1.5 billion inhabitants in 1975 to 3.5 billion in 2015. It is projected to reach 5 billion and almost 55% of the world’s population by 2050. The rate of urbanisation varies greatly by region, with 90% of the future mega-cities (> 10 million people) expected to be in the developing world, with most of urban population growth expected to take place in Asia and Africa.

Europe will, on the one hand, experience increasing diversity in its metropolitan areas under continuous international migration, and on the other hand, face an opposite trend of ‘shrinking cities’ due to demographic changes. Pressure on large metropolitan areas is driving housing prices up through gentrification and financing of housing. It also creates difficulties in the access and quality of public services (healthcare, education, transport, waste management, air quality, public space etc.).

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Continuing Urbanisation

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

More and smarter buildings

By 2060, the number of buildings worldwide is expected to double in number to accommodate the growing wave of urbanisation. The construction industry makes up 40% of all energy-related CO2 emissions, therefore adopting low-carbon solutions will be crucial to meeting the Paris Agreement's climate goals.

Smart building technologies and new business models searching to increase the efficiency of space utilisation, has made sharing both office and living spaces more convenient than before. This could potentially help constrain the rising urbanisation of cities by reducing the number of resources (space but also building materials, energy and water) used for building.

Innovation in engineering, combined with the use of indigenous materials, is providing more sustainable and inclusive building solutions. Combining housing and economic activity within limited urban areas requires efficient use of space in the new ‘productive cities’.

Signals of change: MIT, RICS,

Thriving cities

Cities are estimated to generate 80% of all economic growth and the availability of jobs, education, services and infrastructure are key elements that drive cities to grow, or shrink. OECD studies show that for each doubling of the population, the productivity level of a city increases by 2-5% as a result of better labour distribution, education, entrepreneurship, spread of ideas and so on, this therefore creates a positive feedback loop that is likely to continue in the future.

Signals of change: World Bank Urban Development, OECD, World Bank Challenges of Urbanisation in West Africa, JRC Shrinking Cities

Waste and Want

Solutions to better recycle and manage waste are urgently needed. The production of waste in cities of ‘the Global South’ has been increasing exponentially since the 1980’s and has reached levels equivalent to that of Western Europe and North America. Over 70% of the waste generated worldwide still goes to landfills, or waste dumps - leading to soil and water contamination and the production of greenhouse gases. This increasing waste is a threat to public health. Cities create significant environmental pressure beyond their boundaries: they generate about 70% of global GHG emissions and generate over 720 billion tons of waste annually, which continues to increase.

High levels of air pollution was a cause of death of an estimated 4.2 million people in 2016 and for e.g. Bangalore, in India's Silicon Valley, might become ‘uninhabitable’ in a few years. Unsustainable rapid urbanisation caused a decline of 88% of the city’s vegetation between 1973 and 2016, and water bodies declined by 85% between 2000 and 2014. If these present trends continue, the built up area in Bangalore is expected to increase from 77% in 2017 to 93% in 2020, with a vegetation cover of a mere 3%. The city's e-waste is estimated at 20,000 tonnes per year. Respiratory and other health problems have drastically increased in the city in recent years. In 2016, 80-91% of the urban population worldwide were breathing air with a level of particulate matter over the ‘safe’ value recommended by the WHO guidelines, both indoors and outdoors (also described in the health and other megatrends).

Signals of change: EEA, Waste in the city, Circular Cities Project, Bangalore

Housing Crises

Some of Europe’s most popular cities have seen sharp increases in housing prices in recent years. This threatens housing affordability, as prices are growing faster than wages and the availability of housing is low. As demand exceeds supply, rental and purchase property prices continue to increase, making life increasingly difficult for all but the ultra-rich.

Of the 220 million EU households, around 82 million citizens spend more than 40% of their disposable income on housing, and social housing waiting-lists are at a record high. Eurostat surveys show that in 2015, most EU citizens found it more difficult to find affordable housing in capital cities than in other cities. Real estate markets are least accessible in Paris, Stockholm, Helsinki, Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Luxembourg, Berlin, London and Dublin, where more than 80% of citizens indicate that they do not think it is possible to find good housing at a reasonable price.

The recent scale-up of foreign and corporate investments in residential urban property has transformed patterns of ownership, raising concerns about the social fabric of a city. It raises questions about who can be held accountable for citizen’s rights to an adequate and affordable home. Short-term rental platforms, which are becoming increasingly popular with holiday makers, may cause property prices to spiral upwards, negatively affecting local liveability.

Urban housing markets may be affected under the current and projected economic crisis related to the pandemic too. While those able to telework may be more flexible in choosing where they work from (i.e. potentially moving out of the city), more investment in social housing will be needed to support those most affected.

Signals of change: IUT, Eurostat, UN, ECON, EC JRC

Inequality in the city

Cities are often characterised by high standards of living, but they are also the places where extremes in inequalities, segregation, and high-income inequality can be found. In 2017, 112 million EU inhabitants were at risk of poverty or social exclusion, corresponding to 22% of the total population. Of the 112 million, 47 million people were living in cities. (See also the ‘Widening Inequalities’ Megatrend).

Which part of a city that you live in can determine your health and well-being as well – for e.g., life expectancy in London can vary by 20 years, depending on your zip code, and similar observations hold true for Turin (IT), Barcelona (ES), Stockholm (SE) and Helsinki (FI) - which reveal a significantly higher risk of death amongst residents in more deprived neighbourhoods. Mental well-being may be impacted negatively by urban surroundings too, and increasing attention is currently being given to this aspect (lack of community space, nature, art, parking and so on).

Signals of change:  EC JRC Social Segregation, Tube, International Journal of Health Services

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Will rapid / uncoordinated urbanization in the developing word keep creating the same efficiency gains (some early evidence seem to suggest it will not be the case without proper basic infrastructure development and will just lead to crowding)?
• Can the planet realistically feed 10 billion people despite rising environmental pressure, or will we reach a tipping point? What happens then? And when can we imagine this will be?
• How can we reconcile the self-feeding behavior of cities with fairness and harmonious territorial development (distributed across the EU to rural and urban and remote areas)?
• How do we unblock and support investment potential for affordable housing in the EU?
• How can cities become more inclusive?
• What is the real potential of multimodal mobility for future EU cities?
• In this context, what will be the long term effects and impacts of Covid-19 in relation to urbanisation in the future?
• Will teleworking trend remain the same in the future?
• How can city societies better prepare for the next pandemic (that could be not as mild as COVID-19) and learn from our mistakes