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Demographic trends of workforce

  • Regional demographics of working-age population are deepening: by 2050, the number of people of 20-64 years old will decrease (compared to 2015) by 49 million in Europe, by 22 million in Russia, by 20 million in Japan and by 195 million in China. Over the same period of time, in the United States the number of potentially active workers is expected to increase by 20 million, while in sub-Saharan Africa the working age population (ages 15-64) is projected to triple, to some 1.3 billion -- about the double of that of all high-income countries combined.
  • The share of people above the age of 65 will increase significantly in all European countries. In the EU, if patterns of economic activity stay at current levels, the economic old age dependency ratio (the ratio between the inactive elderly (65+) and number of employed) is projected to rise from 43.1% in 2016 to 68.5% in 2070.
  • The labour force participation rates among adults have been declining for the past 25 years (1993-2018) and ILO expects this trend to continue, as shown by 2023 forecasts.
  • Although the gender gap in labour force participation has been narrowing over the past 25 years (1993-2018), women's global labour force participation rate is still 26.5% below that of men (49% for women, compared to 76% for men) (ILO). The gender gap is closing more rapidly in high-income countries, but continues to widen in emerging economies. ILO estimates that reducing the gender gap by 25% would increase global GDP by $5.8 trillion by 2025.
  • The US attracts inventive talent and observes the highest immigration rate, followed by Australia and Canada. In the period 1995-2010 European countries lagged behind with France, Germany, and the UK seeing more inventors emigrating than immigrating.
  • Older population keeps more active (by will or by necessity); over 50% of people 65+ in Germany, Sweden, and UK are earners through some independent work.
  • By 2030, hyper-connected, tech savvy millennials will make up 75% of the workforce

| Related Megatrends: Technology; Inequalities; Demography