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Competence Centre on Foresight

We foster a strategic, future-oriented and anticipatory culture in the EU policymaking process.

  • Page | Last updated: 10 Oct 2018
Globally developments in shifting health challenges

Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (e.g. infectious diseases, HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases, (e.g. cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes).

Foresight
  • Since 2000, the global burden of disease from communicable diseases (e.g. infectious diseases, HIV, tuberculosis, and measles) has been outweighed by non-communicable diseases, (e.g. cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic respiratory diseases, diabetes).
  • Noncommunicable conditions are projected to account for some 75% of all deaths in 2030 -- up from 63% in 2013 and 71% (41 million people) in 2016. -- related megatrends: Demography; Consumerism; Geopower; Inequality
  • More 85% of the ‘premature’ deaths due to NCD occur in low and middle-income countries.
  • WHO reports that 86% of countries reviewed have set national hepatitis elimination targets and more than 70% have begun to develop national hepatitis plans to enable access to effective prevention, diagnosis, treatment and care services. Furthermore, nearly half of the countries surveyed are aiming for elimination through providing universal access to hepatitis treatment.
  • HIV continues to be a major global public health issue. Globally, 1million people died from HIV-related causes in 2016; approximately 36.7 million people were living with HIV and some 1.8 million people became newly infected. 54% of adults and 43% of children living with HIV are currently receiving lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART).
  • The total mortality from infectious diseases fell from 25% in 1998 to less than 16% in 2010.
  • Many developing countries must now deal with a “dual burden” of disease: they must continue to prevent and control infectious diseases, while also addressing the health threats from NCDs and environmental health risks.
  • In many low-income countries, communicable diseases make up the greatest component of the total disease burden, and the management of communicable diseases signifies an important challenge for health systems.
  • Pollution: Bangalore, India's Silicon Valley might become “unliveable” in a few years. Unsustainable rapid urbanisation caused a decline of 88% in the city’s vegetation between 1973 and 2016, while water bodies declined by 85% between 2000 and 2014. If present trends continue, over the next three years, the built up area in Bangalore is expected to increase from 77% to 93%, with a vegetation cover of a mere 3%. The city's e-waste is estimated at 20,000 tonnes per year. Respiratory and other health problems have increased drastically in the city recently. Urbanization; Geopower; Inequalities