Developments and Forecasts on Increasing Significance of Migration

Developments

• In 2019, the number of international migrants reached an estimated 272 million persons representing 3.5 per cent of the global population (compared to 2.8 per cent in 2000 and 2.3 per cent in 1980).
• International migrants are not distributed evenly around the world, about half reside in just 10 countries. The three countries with the highest number of foreign-born residents, regardless of when they entered the country, were the United States (50.7 million), Germany (13.1 million) and Saudi Arabia (13.1 million).
• In 2019, Europe ranked first as a host of international migrants (82 million), it was followed by Northern America (59 million) and Northern Africa and Western Asia (49 million).
• Forced migration has grown significantly faster than voluntary migration in the past years. By the end of 2019, 79.5 million individuals were forcibly displaced worldwide as a result of persecution, violence, conflict or human rights violations.  Although many are actually descendants of displaced persons rather than displaced during their lifetime, it is the highest number on record according to UNHCR data.
• This number if composed of 26 million refugees, 45.7 million internally displaced and 4.2 million asylum-seekers and represents an increase of 8.7 million people compared to 2018. On top of the 45.7 million people internally displaced by conflicts are 5.1 million internally displaced as a result of disasters.
• For the sixth consecutive year, in 2019, Turkey hosted the largest number of refugees with 3.6 million people. Colombia was second with 1.8 million.
• Most international migrants move between countries in the same region. In 2019, this was especially true for Latin America (largely due to the Venezuelan crisis) and the Caribbean, Central and Southern Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Europe.
• Most international migrants are in working age or younger. In 2019, 74 per cent of the global migrant population were 20-64 years-old and 14 per cent were below 20 years of age.
• 47.9 per cent of the global migrant population were women. North America had the highest share of female migrants  with 51.8 per cent in 2019.
• The regions where the estimated number of immigrants was larger than the number of emigrants (net receivers) during 2010-2020 were: North-Western Europe and Russia, Northern America, Western Africa, Australia and New Zealand.
• The regions where the estimated number of emigrants exceeded the number of immigrants (net senders) were: Central and Southern Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, Eastern and South-Eastern Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and the remaining parts of Oceania.

Forecasts

• Predicting future migration flows is difficult. Even the most sophisticated forecasting models are unable to capture all the drivers that underpin and shape migration processes in an interconnected way.
• Human and economic development as well as urbanisation, geopolitical instability, demographic imbalances and climate change will affect international migration. However, the precise extent and direction of these impacts is unknown.
• Scenarios offer a convenient framework to think about potential longer-term migration developments. Although a relatively recent approach to migration issues, they are gaining on popularity, especially among policymakers. A 2020 study led by the International Organisation for Migration reviewed 21 studies that produced migration scenarios. 20 were published after 2008 and six were published in 2018 alone.
• Narrative scenarios and those using computer-based simulation methods will not be able to predict how many migrants there will be in the future. However, they can outline how many there could be under different scenario assumptions and with a certain probability.

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Developments

• In the past 20 years, the number of non-EU immigrants and mobile EU citizens living in EU-27 Member States and the UK has increased by about 60 per cent. It rose from 34 million or 6.9 per cent of total EU population in 2000 to about 60 million or 11.1 per cent of the EU population in 2019.
• Among the 512 million persons living in the EU in 2018, 7.8 per cent had a nationality other than their country of residence: 3.4 per cent had a citizenship of another EU Member State and 4.4 per cent of a non-EU Member State.
• In 2018, Luxembourg had the largest share of citizens of another EU Member State (41 per cent of the population) followed by Cyprus (13 per cent) and Ireland (9 per cent). The largest proportions of non-EU citizens were found in Estonia and Latvia (both 14 per cent) and Austria (8 per cent).
• In 2018, the share of women and men was almost equal for both EU and non-EU mobile citizens.
• 77 per cent of non-EU nationals were of working age from 15 to 64 years old.
• The employment rate for EU mobile citizens was 77 per cent in 2018, compared with 74 per cent for nationals and 59 per cent for non-EU citizens overall.
• The shares of EU and non-EU mobile workers in the EU workforce overall were almost identical in 2018 with 4.1 per cent for EU mobile citizens and 4.2 per cent for workers from outside the EU.
• But foreign-born workers are not spread evenly in the labour markets. In European OECD countries, more than 40 per cent of such workers were in occupations dominated by routine tasks in 2018.
• In 2017, over 3 million persons emigrated from an EU Member State. This includes people moving to another EU Member State and to a country outside the EU. It represents an increase by 12 per cent since 2013. In 2017, the majority (54 per cent) of those emigrating were nationals from the reporting country, 25 per cent were citizens of another EU Member State, while 21 per cent were non-EU citizens.
• In 2019, 721 080 asylum seekers applied for international protection in the EU-28, an increase of 11.4 per cent compared to 2018. The number of asylum applications increased for the first time since 2015.
• In 2019, the EU-27 granted some from of a protection status to 295 800 asylum seekers compared to 316 200 in 2018. The total number of persons granted protection was down by 6 per cent. In 2019, the EU accepted 21 200 refugees via resettlement schemes.
• The largest group of beneficiaries of international protection in the EU in 2019 were Syrians with 27 per cent or 78 600, followed by Afghans with 14 per cent or 40 000 and Venezuelans with 13 per cent or 37 500. The number of Venezuelans rose by nearly 40 times in 2019 compared with 2018.
• Among the Syrians granted protection status in the EU, 71 per cent were recorded in Germany (56 100). For the Afghans the highest share 41 per cent was also recorded in Germany (16 200). Nearly all grants of protection status to Venezuelans (35 300) were recorded in Spain.
• In 2019, 13 800 asylum seekers applying for international protection in the EU-27 were considered as unaccompanied minors. This was nearly 20 per cent fewer than in 2018. This downward trend started after the peak year in 2015 when 92 000 unaccompanied minors were recorded. Among the unaccompanied children, the age group of 16-17 years old was dominating. Around 90 per cent were males.
• Across the EU, 141 846 illegal border crossings were detected in 2019. It represents a 4.9 per cent decrease compared with 2018.

Forecasts

• Migration increases the size of EU's labour force but has a limited effect on the ratio of dependents to workers. Doubling immigration by 2060 would have similar effect as if immigrants coming at a rate close to current trends were better integrated and participated in the labour force at the same rate as Europeans.
• The emigration of workers is speeding up ageing and population decline in eastern EU Member States, such as Romania, Latvia and Lithuania. For example, if the current movements that largely target wealthier EU countries, persist, Romania's population could decline by 30 per cent by 2060 (from 19.9 million in 2015 to 13.8 million in 2060).

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• Networks with migrant communities in destination countries increase the likelihood of international migration from low, middle and high-income countries.
• There is a negative correlation between international migration from low-income countries and rising fertility rates.
• There is a general understanding that more international migration happens when GDP per capita in poorer countries rises together with people’s feasibility and aspirations to migrate. However, latest research shows that in the time period of 5 to 10 years, economic growth in low-income countries coincides with less rather than more emigration to high-income countries.

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