Developments

·        Demographic ageing is not a biological process. It’s a shift from a youthful society to a society with a higher share of senior citizens. The two main reasons for this is increasing life expectancy and stagnating or declining numbers of birth.

·         At a global level, ageing has not been an issue until recently. The share of the global population of over 65 years old only increased from about 5% in 1960 to 9% in 2019. When, however, looking at changes at a regional level, it becomes apparent that demographic ageing has already set in.

·         Ageing already takes place in high-income countries, and it becomes increasingly relevant in middle-income countries.

·        Japan is home to the world’s oldest population, with a median age of  with 27% of its population in age group 65 years and over.

·        In 2019, the median age of the EU-27 population was 43.7 years. Across the EU Member States, in 2019, the median age was lowest Cyprus and Ireland (both 37.7 years) and in Luxembourg (39.5 years). By contrast, the median age of the population was 8-9 years higher in Germany (46.0 years) and in Italy (46.7 years). Also by some other indicator Italy, Portugal (both 23% aged 65 or over), and Germany (22%) have the oldest populations.

Forecasts

·         By 2050, average life expectancy at birth is projected to reach 77 years globally.

·         The global median age is assumed to rise from 30 years in 2015 to 36 years by 2050. According to the projection, the global number of people above age 65 more than doubling from 700 million (2019) to 1.5 billion in 2050. During this time the share of the global population over 65 years is projected to grew from 9% (2019) to 16% by 2050. Their relative weight thus increases from one in eleven to one in six citizens of our planet. Then the country with the oldest population will be Japan. By 2050, some 40% of Japan's population is projected to be over 65 years old.

·         The pace of ageing is the most rapid in middle-income countries than it was in Europe and North America. For countries like France or Sweden, it took almost 150 years between the time when the share of the population over 60 years was 10% and more recent times when this share reached 20%. In countries such as Brazil, China and India the same transition takes place within a period of slightly more than 20 years.

·        In the EU, the median age will rise from 43.7 to 48.2 years in 2050. The share of older people (in age group 65+) will increase in parallel, though unevenly across higher age groups. While the number of EU citizens aged 65-74 years is projected to increase by 17.6 %, the age group 75-84 years is projected to expand by 60.5 % until 2050. The number of very old people (85+) is projected to more than double (+130.3%). And the number of centenarians will quintuple to almost half a million EU citizens in 2050.

·        The relation between those of working age (15-65) and those above age 65 in the EU (defined as old-age dependency ratio) is projected to nearly double: from 34,1% in 2018 to 56.7% by 2050. By then, more than two thirds of the EU Member States are projected to have an old-age dependency ratio above 50.0%; in these countries, there will be less than two persons of working age for every person aged 65 years or more.

·        At first sight one has to come to the conclusion that European workers will have to support more elderly dependants in the future. Defining working age as range between 15 and 65 might, however be too static. With rising retirement age, a redefinition of working age would change the picture substantially.

| Related Megatrends: Work; Health

More on this Megatrend