Trend: Militarisation of borders and instrumentalisation of migration

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

The EU's external borders have been subject to increasing pressure from migration flows. This has led to a progressive transformation of the type of resources used to manage those borders and for the instrumentalisation of migrants to destabilise or to create leverage in international relations and as a source of disinformation.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Increasing significance of migration

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change.

Militarisation of borders

The responsibility and resources applied in border control, traditionally linked with police-like agencies are changing. We are witnessing an increase in the use of military technologies, hardware and personnel, and in some cases even the transfer of this responsibility to military forces. This trend is associated with an overall securitization of society and more specifically the perception and treatment of migration as a security threat. See also the Security megatrend.

Signals of change: Migration Policy Institute

The instrumentalisation of migrants for geo-political reasons

We are witnessing an increasing instrumentalisation of migrants as a geo-political tool by countries, trying to leverage the perception of migration as a risk and using that in negotiations and unilateral actions. This includes not preventing, or even encouraging migration migration movements towards target countries.

Signals of change: Clingendael

Migration crisis as fuel to tensions and disinformation

Disinformation on the topic of migration is being used to generate tensions in society. Together with pre-existing perceptions and extremist political discourse, this disinformation fuels an overall discontent with the way governments handle the situation and undermines efforts put in place to address current and future migration challenges.

Signals of change: CIDOB, The Irish Times

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What if the EU becomes dependent on a few non-EU countries 'to host' migration?
• What if Europe stops being attractive to migrants?
• What if the EU's external borders were opened and immigration policies were relaxed?