Trend: Expect the unexpected

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

As they recover from the COVID-19 crisis, cities are facing new adversities, emerging from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and climate change. These challenges have exposed long-standing inequalities in access to quality healthcare, transport, affordable housing, energy and adequate income in cities. With new crises looming, due to increasing geopolitical and climate challenges, cities need to improve their long-term preparedness plans for possible emergencies and ‘black swan’ events. Crisis management and the resilience of cities could also be strengthened by training citizens’ for situations of emergency. 

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Continuing Urbanisation

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Emergency settlement in case of unexpected disasters

Emergency settlement following cases of unexpected disasters, such as flooding or earthquakes, is becoming important and part of managing more frequent natural extreme events that are due to climate change. Semi-permanent homes for refugees provide a quick response solution, accommodating large amounts of people, with short assembly time and adequate comfort. These housing units aim for short assembly times (max 1-2 days/manpower per unit), private and personalised spaces, and respectable energy efficiency levels and renewable energy criteria. Working locally on such extreme scenarios can highly foster a public debate, thus operationally, considering shelter-building training for local communities, (to be held before a catastrophic event occurs), can speed up a recovery process, and foster citizen involvement, ownership and care.

Signals of change: Housing Futures, Better Shelter

Collective warm places

Gas shortages and skyrocketing heating costs might see many Germans unable to afford their heating bills this winter. German authorities plan 'warming halls' for the upcoming winter where people can warm themselves for a few hours before they return to their cold unheated homes.

The western German city of Ludwigshafen is about to convert its Friedrich-Ebert-Halle arena into a giant warm-up hall, Bild reported, citing the city mayor, Jutta Steinruck. The facility that used to host sports events, exhibitions and concerts and served as a vaccination centre during the Covid-19 pandemic will now be potentially saving people from freezing in cold winter temperatures.

Signals of change: SOTT

Cities urged to prepare for more extreme urban heat

Heatwaves are becoming more frequent, longer, hotter and deadlier, especially in urban areas, but the threats they pose are preventable if cities and residents are prepared for extreme heat and take steps to save lives. An in-depth study of four Asian cities – Ahmedabad, Jakarta, Nashik and Singapore – aimed to understand how building compactness, land use diversity, and material used influence urban temperatures. Large data sets on each of these parameters were collected and analysed for each city and have led to breakthrough findings.

People living in cities are the hardest hit by increasing temperatures, because urban areas are warmer than the surrounding countryside and are getting hotter due to climate change. Those most at risk are already vulnerable – the elderly and isolated, infants, pregnant women, those with pre-existing ailments and the urban poor, who often work outdoors, or live and work in buildings without air conditioning, or adequate ventilation.

Signals of change: Smartcitiesworld, WUF

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Who is responsible for training citizens for crises?
• How can we find a balance between preparedness and resilience and anxiety about threats and future crises?