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Competence Centre on Foresight

We foster a strategic, future-oriented and anticipatory culture in the EU policymaking process.

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Transnational organised crime and Hybrid Threats

Foresight
  • Transnational organised crime is estimated as having a budget twice larger than all military budgets combined. How much influence and governing power could non-state actors buy?
    | Related Megatrends: Security
  • Worldwide corruption, associated with increased income distribution and governance influence, is estimate at 1 trillion per year (mainly including only bribery), while the world black market value is estimated at $1.81 trillion.
    | Related Megatrends: Geopower
  • With the evolution of the IoT, wearable computers, autonomous vehicles, and brain-computer interfaces, cyber security will become increasingly important. Data need to be encrypted at all levels; quantum cryptography seems to be the best answer known so far.
  • Quantum cryptography is an emerging security technology (already demonstrated in June 2017 by China). 
    | Related Megatrends: TechnologyGeopowerSecurity
  • Global-scale quantum Internet is increasingly possible.
  • Collection (and concentration) of biometric data would make possible hacking humans and other living organism and is increasing the risks of digital warfare, targeted-attacks, and dictatorships (as well as re-engineering nature).
    | Related Megatrends: TechnologyGeopower; Governance
  • Even tough Hybrid Threats (HT) have dominated the security landscape in Europe for long, they are currently repackaged and empowered by new tools, concepts and technologies targeting vulnerabilities in several domains in an unprecedented manner. 
  • The effectiveness of HT in undermining public trust in democratic institutions, challenging the core values of societies, gaining geopolitical influence and power, and affecting the decision-making capability are increasing.
  • Hybrid actors could achieve the desired objectives without full escalation. Such “under the radar” activities make it difficult to detect and design counteracts.

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