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Knowledge for policy

Competence Centre on Foresight

We foster a strategic, future-oriented and anticipatory culture in the EU policymaking process.

  • Page | Last updated: 18 Sep 2019

Rising temperatures

  • Each of the last 3 decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850.
  • The five warmest years on record all have taken place since 2010. Global average temperatures in 2017 was 0.90 degrees Celsius warmer than the 1951-1980 mean, according to NASA.
  • The IPCC estimates that at current warming rate, the world would reach human-induced global warming of 1.5°C around 2040.
  • Some models show that the 1.5 °C level could be reached by 2030, when taking into consideration the combination of three trends: rising emissions, declining air pollution and natural climate cycles.
  • New generation of models show a faster warming than previous ones. They indicate that by 2100, global average temperatures could rise 6.5°-7°C above pre-industrial levels if CO2 emissions continue unabated. This finding by two independent models from leading research centres in France is supported by other models from respected reserach centers—e.g. from the USA and Britain's Met Office—that indicate a higher ECS (equilibrium climate sensitivity) than the previous generation of models.
  • In northern Europe, global warming will increase the number and intensity of heatwaves, with events even worse than the 2018 unusually hot summer to strike every other year by the 2040s.

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