Trend: Social cohesion erosion

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

The well-being of countries and individuals has been increasingly recognised as a societal asset, implying a sense of togetherness, trust, opportunities and orientation towards a common goal. Although social cohesion in the EU as a whole does not appear to be at risk, perceptions of social, ethno-cultural and economic exclusion are generally low within the EU countries. Income inequalities exacerbated by the pandemic’s slow recovery, opposing viewpoints on vaccination and governmental measures against COVID-19, social tensions within marginalised communities and climate neglect are polarizing today’s society. Reducing poverty is not enough anymore. Policy making needs to consider broader social cohesion objectives to preserve this social asset and improve the lives of citizens.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Widening inequalities

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

Generational inequality

Young people leaving school during the COVID-19 pandemic, or just after, are going to find it much harder to secure employment and well-paid jobs than their immediate predecessors. Non-graduate school leavers and those coming from minority backgrounds will suffer the greatest losses compared to former generations, but the situation is not better for graduates either, who may face low wage growth over many years despite their investment in education. Both of these could cause an exacerbation of socio-economic inequalities and a decline in social mobility. Young people who do not have family wealth will suffer and intergenerational inequality will rise (meaning that who your parents are will become more important).

In addition, fairness perceptions diminished especially among young people and students. Potential drivers include uncertainties about the future, perceived inequality of opportunity, and discontent with measures taken to contain the COVID-19 pandemic.

Signals of change: JRC, Economic Observatory, WID, WEF

Ethnic integration

The COVID-19 pandemic has disproportionately affected older and poorer people, those living in deprived areas and ethnic minorities. A lack of ethnic integration is causing an increase in social tensions. Residential segregation too. High levels of segregation often coincide with unequal access to jobs and education etc, exacerbating existing inequalities in economic and social outcomes.

Global migration is increasing and in the face of economic crises, has resulted in an ongoing battle between differing political and social opinions ranging from far-right nationalists calling for anti-refugee and closed-door policies to left-wing liberals looking to accept, support, and integrate those in need. There is an increasing prevalence of racial and religious violence, creating greater tensions around this complex issue. The threat for the future is that disagreements within society increasingly escalate into conflict.

Signals of change: Reuters, IFS

Increasing divide in narratives at EU Member States level

The COVID-19 pandemic adds new urgency to Europe’s quest for a compelling narrative. International interferences, differences in the way Member States have handled the lockdown and the level of public trust are all adding to the increasing divide in narratives between EU countries. Populists exploit this to their advantage, channelling anxiety about political and social change into fear and exclusion. Narratives are also made up of tweets, online content, and often citizens isolate themselves within their social media bubble.

Due to an increasing divide in narratives, people have lost trust in governments – leaders who should lay down all the prerequisites for social cohesion – and their ability to support livelihoods. Disillusionment often translates into self-isolation and loneliness, which could reduce social cohesion severely and further exacerbate inequalities.

The EU finds itself in the battle of all narratives and will have to address this unease and reassure its citizens.

Signals of change: JRC, ECFR

The surprising effects of loneliness

One in four EU citizens reported feeling lonely most of the time during the first months of the coronavirus pandemic.

Besides being an individual problem, loneliness is a public health issue and it might reduce social cohesion and community trust and ultimately economic growth. As such, loneliness needs to be acknowledged as a challenge at societal level. The long-term effects of loneliness on society, including exacerbation of inequalities, might be more severe than expected.  It will be crucial to systematically monitor the prevalence of loneliness among all age groups in the EU in the years to come.

In addition, extensive research shows that chronically lonely people are at greater risk for serious medical conditions, both physical and mental.  Although loneliness is often associated with old age, many studies shows that loneliness is common among youth as well. Social distancing and lockdowns implemented in response to COVID-19 have magnified a problem that already existed.

Signals of change: JRC, JRC

Rising income inequalities

The COVID-19 pandemic has exacerbated the income inequalities. The richest 10% of the global population currently takes 52% of global income, whereas the poorest half of the population earns 8.5% of it. While 51 million people are projected to live in extreme poverty by 2030, billionaires grow richer than ever.  In addition, in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the rising prices could have major implications for the livelihoods of individuals and communities in developing countries. The number of people that could be pushed back into poverty or fall into poverty for the first time is rising.

Signals of change: FT, Inequality

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What if the narratives becomes so conflictual that people cannot have a dialogue anymore?
• What if the migrant’s crisis has an impact on social cohesion within countries?
• What if ethnic concentration in schools becomes that big and it affects integration/social cohesion?
• What if social cohesion deteriorates so much that people do not work anymore together?