Trend: Public support increases

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

Public support for climate and environmental action has increased and it is now a major concern for citizens. Their awareness of the climate emergency and the need to act substantially in a variety of areas has increased and it is well recognised within the EU and globally. This development is apparent in the broadening climate movement that not only involves countries, but also local governments and non-state actors. The potential negative effects for local communities of a climate transition has led to the development of support instruments to ensure fairness and the continued buy-in of the population for the climate transition.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Climate change and environmental degradation

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

The clouds are parting

Public awareness of the importance of climate mitigation is increasing and support for action has increased in the last decade. The number of respondents to the Eurobarometer that name climate change as the most important issue facing the EU has more than doubled from 2010 to 2019. Globally, approximately 2/3 of respondents to the United Nations people’s climate vote recognize the climate emergency. Interestingly, support for climate action even surpasses the opinion that climate change is a serious problem, which indicates that people approach this topic in a precautionary manner.

Signals of change: Special Eurobarometer, Eurobarometer, UNDP

Climate action movements become more diversified

Climate action is no longer exclusively co-ordinated by governments. While the ratification of the Paris Agreement by nation states was a milestone for global climate action, bottom up movements have formed as well. Local governments have come together to form the Covenant of Mayors to support local climate and energy action. There have also been many grass roots movements initiated by concerned citizens, such as the global climate strike of 2019, or the school strikes for climate by kids.

Signals of change: Partelow, Convenant of Mayors, Guardian

The concept of a 'Just Transition' becomes increasingly important

Trade unions first coined the term ‘Just Transition’ to raise awareness of the adverse effects of environmental protection on workers and communities. This concept has evolved into being a main element of climate action, with recognition by the International Labour Organisation. Today, the Just Transition is at the core of EU climate action and the EU has established a Just Transition Fund in 2021 to support regions in their socially fair climate transitions.

Signals of change: EC, ILO

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Will public support for climate action continue?

• Will economic recovery from COVID-19 limit willingness to implement climate policy? 

• When will the Just Transition be a success?