Trend: Outside planetary boundaries

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

We continue to live outside of the planetary boundaries. Human activity has negative effects on the natural environment. We pollute natural ecosystems and use resources at a rate that makes it impossible for ecosystems to regenerate.

The result of our unsustainable lifestyle is a reduction in environmental quality. Soil, water and air quality are under increasing pressure as the human population grows. Acidification (decrease in the pH-level of water bodies) and eutrophication (enrichment of minerals and nutrients in water bodies) alter the balance of ecosystems and have detrimental effects on plants and animals. Changes in land use leads to the loss and degradation of natural habitats. The reduced available land for wildlife is leading to an increasing rate biodiversity loss and extinction cascades (i.e. where a species depends on another species that became extinct).

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Climate change and environmental degradation

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

Soil, water and air quality & quantity decreases

The quality of soil, water and air are the three dimensions of environmental quality. The quality of soil depends on its ability to function within an ecosystem, whereas the quality of water and air is determined by the degree of pollution. It is crucial to maintain a high environmental quality in each of the three dimensions so that human, animal and plants can be healthy. However, population increases, poor land management systems and industrial production are increasing the pressure on environmental quality.

Signals of change: Soil Observatory, EEA, JRC

Acidification and eutrophication increase

Ocean acidification refers to a decrease in the pH-level of ocean water caused by an increasing uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. These changes in ocean chemistry affect animals and plants. For example, it endangers a variety of species, such as corals that cannot live in water with too low pH-level. Eutrophication of water bodies such as lakes and oceans refers to an increase in nutrients, caused for example by fertilization or the discharge of wastewater into water bodies. Eutrophication disturbs the equilibrium of water bodies and reduces water quality. Some effects of eutrophication are reduced oxygen content and the excessive growth of algae.

Signals of change: IUCN, EEA

Habitat loss and degradation continues

The loss and degradation of natural habitat is a major threat to animal and plant species. The main driver of habitat loss is human activity, such clearing land for agriculture, urbanisation, or resource exploitation. Another threat is pollution that endangers natural habitats. Oceans are particularly impacted by pollution, for example plastic waste, because pollutants travel via waterways to the ocean, where they accumulate.

Signals of change: Earth overshoot day, Stockholm Research Centre, Link, FAO, Lebreton

Biodiversity loss accelerates

Biodiversity loss refers to the reduction in number or extinction of species locally and globally. Human-driven biodiversity loss has accelerated in recent years at an alarming rate. Some of the reasons are changes in land use, pollution and human induced climate change. In an ecosystem, the loss of one species can trigger a domino effect of extinctions of other species: a phenomenon that is referred to as extinction cascade. 

Signals of change: EC, ICUN, Science Daily, Duarte

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• How well can ecosystems regenerate if pollution is reduced?

• Can food webs be restored? 

• At which point is food security in danger?