Trend: Negative impacts increase

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

Global warming is already affecting us today and the negative impacts of climate change on our lives is increasing. With continued climate change, the severity of the negative impacts will increase.

Human-caused global warming has already been linked to several negative impacts. These include a higher frequency of extreme weather events, such as unprecedented heat waves, droughts and heavy rainfall. Climate change also leads to slow onset events, such as desertification, loss of biodiversity and more general ecosystem degradation. These changes can have a negative impact on our physical and psychological health. The reduced inhabitability of some regions is forcing people to migrate in the hope of a better life somewhere else. While climate change adaptation measures can reduce the exposure to climate change effects, they have clear limits.

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain places/groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

Nature Suffers

Global warming alters the natural environment and it has changed since the 1950s. The effects of global warming include more and longer-lasting heat waves, an increase in sea levels and a higher frequency of heavy precipitation events. It is very likely that the continued increase of average global temperatures will cause a further increase in the frequency of extreme weather events and make them more severe than they are today.

Signals of change: JRC, JRC, NASA, IPCC, Forzieri, IPCC

When we hurt our planet, we hurt ourselves

Several effects of climate change have an impact on human health. Heat extremes, poor air quality, poor food and water quality, changes in infectious agents (emerging threats), natural disasters and undernutrition will lead to physical health issues and increased mortality. In addition, climate change and environmental degradation can (directly and indirectly) cause stress and have mental health impacts. Eco-anxiety and climate anxiety are increasingly entering the research focus of impacts caused by climate change and environmental degradation. They are also increasingly reaching therapists offices (see the trend on 'Mind yourself' in the 'Shifting Health Challenges' Megatrend for more on this topic).

Signals of change: IPCC, EASAC, USGCRP, JRC, Climate and Health observatory, GECO

Climate change increases migration

Extreme weather events such as floods and droughts create pressure on local populations. As more regions are hit by weather disasters or food supply shortages, an increasing number of people have to leave their homes. Disasters triggered approximately 25 million displacements within countries in 2019. In addition, weather events have a positive effect on cross-border, long-distance migration – directly because of the immediate effect of disasters and indirectly because of their negative economic impact.

Signals of change: IDMC, Economist, Pinksy, FAO

To act or not to act

The need for climate change adaption measures is increasing. Climate change is already happening and even if global warming can be limited to 1.5°C, (which is still not guaranteed), there will be negative impacts. The severity of these effects depends on how fast further climate change can be reduced, but also on the exposure of humans, assets and ecosystems. Climate change adaptation can reduce this exposure. However, climate change adaptation measures are not yet sufficiently implemented on a global scale.

Signals of change: EC, Global Center on Adaption, Risk Data Hub, UN

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What will the cost of inaction be?
• Up to which point can climate change adaption reduce vulnerability to climate change?What if pathogens are re-activated from thawing permafrost?
• What if increasing climate migration leads to xenophobic reactions?
• What if some countries decide to apply solar radiation management techniques to locally mitigate negative climate impacts and this has impacts on other countries?