Trend: Making the twin transition a reality

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

Digital technologies can provide functions that are able to catalyse the green transition. This mutual reinforcement, often named “twin transition” is particularly pressing in economic sectors that bear a significant slice of greenhouse gas emissions, such as transports, energy, agriculture, building and construction and energy-intensive industries.

Future mobility i.e. the way we travel around will be transformed by technological innovation. Humans are used to having goods delivered to their door at home and also being able to travel to different locations (excluding the limits of pandemic travel restrictions). The car has been a very common and transformative transport tool this past century. Different modes of transport require control of some sort by a human, although aeroplanes have had ‘autopilots’ control their take off, flying and landing for many decades. However, even with an autopilot system, real human pilots have had to be present alongside on the flights.

There will be a change in how transport systems are supported. Traditional petrol/diesel cars will be replaced by electric cars. Even aeroplanes can become electrically powered. Also new trains, such as hyperloop trains, have been built in some countries and will allow for a fast transfer between big cities. Entertainment en-route is expected to play a role in future travel. These developments and many technologies are heavily dependent on safety testing and the battery capacity of a vehicle. Public uptake will require safety and trust.

The energy production and storage sector is exploring innovations in already known technologies, such as Hydrogen, to face the challenge of growing consumption and climate change fighting goals.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Accelerating technological change and hyperconnectivity

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Electrification of transport

Demand for electric cars is increasing for environmental and progress reasons. They are being promoted by governments who are providing tax subsidies for their purchase. New solutions for future batteries and car charging are needed to make electric cars a common solution, overcoming the current shorter autonomy and long charging times. More batteries in use will mean more used batteries that need to be safely disposed of or recycled. The market for used batteries is growing, though in many countries globally, there is still no organised battery collection for safe disposal. Batteries are largely based on lithium which is sourced in China, disruptions in that supply-line could limit availability in Europe. A new approach to air travel would be to look also at electric solutions for operating aeroplanes.

The traditional aeroplane industry has a considerably negative impact on air quality and the environment. The price of fuel is increasing and fossil fuel support is dwindling. People are more environmentally conscious and are choosing to do less air travel. Electrified versions of aeroplanes do exist already, but to date they have been very light-weight versions. Traditional goods transport and passenger planes are very heavy and require a lot of energy and engine power to take off. A major challenge in the search for a sustainable solution for air transport is to find batteries that can have the capacity to both provide a lot of energy (for long distance travel) and provide it in great amounts at the beginning (for take-off).

Signals of change: Leeham, NBC news, GreenBiz, Eco-Business, IEA, Electric Energy

Autonomous vehicles and other innovations

The car industry is always evolving and is changing again, for e.g. car design, development and production methods and targets. Autonomous self driving car prototypes exist and have been test-driven in the real world in real traffic. For the transport of goods in the future there is a possibility that autonomous drones might run delivery services, assist in emergency situations, or be used to reach inaccessible areas. In the long run they could also replace the traditional truck drivers. Amazon wants to send its post by drones. Using techniques from Artificial Intelligence, the autonomous vehicles can learn existing rules and also adjust to new situations. In an emergency situation a drone could calculate by itself the best position/angle to give a camera, or decide to use a heat camera to provide the optimal source of information to the emergency teams.
Autonomous vehicles raise questions about responsibility and liability: who is responsible if an accident occurs - the owner of the vehicle? If an investigation points to a fault in its operating system is it that the responsibility of the software provider? ‘Car insurance’ will take on a whole new meaning in the future.

The large number of cars and limited infrastructure we have today is leading to traffic jams and having nowhere to park, alongside the emissions. Other ways of (car) transportation need to be considered for the future. Flying cars is one possible solution. Widespread use of flying cars could reduce traffic and ease the way we travel around. If vehicles were autonomously or remotely-controlled, this would reduce the number of driving licences needed by individuals and could foster ownership, i.e. possibly more shared ownership and shared transport in the future.

A 'hyperloop' is a 'train-in-a-tube' ground-level transportation system in which people travel in a hovering pod inside a vacuum tube at high speeds with the help of magnets. They could move people and products more efficiently (energy and time-wise) than current trains, and potentially reduce the need for air travel - if they can transport goods and people safely, using less energy and in about the same amount of time.

Signals of change: Technology, USA today, Governing, Analytics Insight, Dronethusiast

Opportunities and challenges in energy technologies

The energy sector is faced with challenging demands to power a growing economy, namely buildings, transport, industries, an high-energy consumption digital infrastructures - such as data centres and crypto currency mining. The scarcity of energy sources and materials is pushing the development of greener technologies for energy production and storage and stimulating the decarbonisation of industrial processes. Hydrogen is coming back as a significant alternative - as both Blue Hydrogen (whose production is associated with carbon capture and storage/CCU) and Green Hydrogen (produced with renewable energy) forms.

CCU technology can significantly reduce CO2 emissions and is associated with existing and new power plants, (including high-emission industrial facilities such as cement plants, iron and steel and chemical manufacturing).

Signals of change: ITONICS, WEF, TIME

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What legal issues could autonomous vehicles bring? 

• Are there enough energy sources for the electrification of different kinds of transport?

• If electric vehicles (cars, planes) exist and they are autonomous, who owns / control its usage data? Can the manufacturer reset / update the software in an already purchased vehicle without asking the owners approval? Will there be surveillance of passengers?

• What if we run out of fossil fuels and raw materials needed for energy production and storage?
• Can our energy and transport networks be undermined and disrupted by cyber terrorists?