Trend: Great power, great risk

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

Collecting, analysing and compiling big data creates numerous opportunities for society. However, the growing level of digitalization and our increased dependence on digital technologies is making us vulnerable to surveillance of enormous scale, and cyberattacks. Mass surveillance has been enabled via digital technologies and can be exploited by both public and private entities, eg governments and companies that collect this data.

A cyberattack can be defined as the exploitation of vulnerabilities and weaknesses in digital assets (e.g. computers, or networks), to seek a particular goal (such as ‘hacking’ access to private data for economic compensation, or to cause a loss of access to services). We have already witnessed how cyberattacks can cause massive disruptions to public healthcare services, putting the lives of people in danger, and how it can compromise the personal data of hundreds of millions of citizens, governments and industrial processes. The benefits brought by the digital transformation and ‘Big Data’ ownership need to be protected against the negative impacts that both digital surveillance and cyberattacks cause to society.

In our modern, hyper-connected society, the line that separates the physical and the virtual (online) world is more blurred than ever. Our personal sphere extends to social networks and a broader set of online services that support interactions, and collect and process the personal information of hundreds of millions of European citizens. This hyperconnectivity also includes the interconnection between a growing number of smart and connected devices (phones, watches), collectively forming a complex, interconnected, global digital ecosystem. A handful of companies control a large part of this market and are therefore in a position of power. They can gain important insights and control information flow, and subsequently opinions.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Accelerating technological change and hyperconnectivity 

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Cyber threats that impact society and the environment

The best and cheapest solution for storage of all of the data produced by hyperconnectivity is the ‘cloud’ i.e. databases on servers of unknown remote location. A large quantity of information about citizens’ lives is stored on these servers worldwide (i.e. in 'the cloud'). Their physical environment is typically owned and managed by a hosting company, often located in the US or China. Personal data, can be at risk, not only of being unlawfully accessed through cyberattacks, but also when the information is moved or exchanged between different storage locations by entities with access to it. These may be individuals, institutions or private companies, in all cases there is a risk that the individual loses control over the use and security of their own information. Company takeovers are another situation where individuals can lose control over the use of their own information. For businesses, the direct costs commonly associated with data breaches are less significant than the ‘hidden’ costs, which can be intangible and take time to reveal themselves.

Cybercrime has already demonstrated the vulnerability of many sectors. Therefore, cybersecurity and cyber-resilience are especially important for critical industries and warning systems. Cyber-attacks on warning systems can cause damage of enormous size to the environment (and consequently health) for example, through large-scale spills, emissions, releases of hazardous material and so on. Cyberattacks in the healthcare sector have huge societal implications, not only in terms of the breach the privacy of personal records, but they can negatively impact hospitals, delay urgent treatments, disrupt transport and distribution of supplies and so on. Organizations (such as the European Medicines Agency) which host confidential information (e.g. about soon-to-be-released medical products), are vulnerable. The threats can be reduced by implementing more rigorous safety measures both in private and publicly-operated databases. The upcoming European Health Data Space containing individual’s data from different sources could showcase how to implement advanced safety measures.

Signals of change: NCBI, Deloitte, Aldridge, BBC, Herjavec group

Threats due to market size and limited choice of tech providers

Hyperconnectivity is influencing many aspects of society at an institutional and individual level. Hyperconnectivity refers to being digitally connected at all times, using the internet and digital systems such as smart devices, social networks and so on. The data produced by the hyperconnectivity of European citizens is being processed by a large number of modern social networks and digital connection platforms that belong to a small number of large companies, all outside the EU. Society is heavily dependent on the services provided by these few companies, which gives them a lot of market influence. If one of the providers stopped functioning, existing, or if their terms and conditions regarding the use of data changes, the effect could be significant on the whole of society. In other words from an economic point of view, big technology companies are ‘too big to fail’ and systemically important.

The limited number of technology providers has led to the concentration of large and powerful sources of information. The providers can use their market position to influence public opinion, either by censoring or banning certain opinions on social media, or by presenting selected information to users, and in this way influence which information readers think is correct. This has very large implications for many aspects of society, e.g. deciphering what is fact or fiction, spreading vaccine hesitancy, influencing democracy, and a wide range of other big issues. There is a need to train people in digital literacy, i.e. to be aware of this and to apply critical thinking and to check the source of their information and evaluate it in order to address the problem of influence, control, misinformation, opinions, and bias.

Signals of change: The Heritage Foundation, CNBC, Wired, Ethics Info Technol, NY Times, BBC

Quantum’s disruptive potential

Quantum technologies are a perfect example of 'great power and great risks', considering their disruptive potential on data and communication protection. It provides theoretically tamper-proof communication networks that are immune to, or can detect, interception and eavesdropping. Equally, quantum brings unprecedented decryption capabilities, giving an added advantage to certain actors in accessing reserved information.

Quantum computers can provide the advanced computing power needed for complex computational workloads reducing significantly the amount of time needed for research and development. High Performance, Biology-inspired and Quantum Computing will revolutionize certain industry processes, namely where computation of high volumes of data could bring unparalleled efficiency and market advantage.

Signals of change:  Caltech, Deloitte, Accenture

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What if access to internet is no longer possible?
• Which are the most vulnerable areas to cyber attacks? Health is often mentioned (both medical records / insurance companies but also medical device information sharing), but many more areas are at risk and have great vulnerabilities. 
• How far can big data go before it becomes a risk of its own (ethical questions of who has access, and are users aware of data storage being sold as a product)?
• What if quantum is used against the common good?
• The meaning of life cannot be coded or made into data. Could an algorithmic society reduce us to no more than bundles of data, influenced by large tech providers?