Trend: EU's attractiveness

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

Migration from outside the EU can be expected to continue for the foreseeable future. However, there are numerous possible scenarios in terms of its volume and composition. 

While humanitarian and family migration are likely to feature prominently, there might be new developments in terms of EU’s attractiveness for skilled workers and policies guiding labour migration. No matter the volume of future migration flows, growing numbers of children with migration background will continue to increase EU societies’ diversity and require action to make sure that their future will not be determined by their background. Migration will remain a key issue defining EU’s future. Citizens’ trust in institutions will be key to preventing the rise in strong anti-immigration sentiments in European societies.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Increasing significance of migration

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

There is demand for new approaches to governing labour migration

Europe will continue to be an important host for refugees and family migrants. Many migrants who come to the EU via these routes, women in particular, take a long time to join the labour market. These delays are also a consequence of temporary employment bans that are being imposed in many EU countries on recently arrived asylum seekers. For years, there have been calls to address shortages of labour and skills by using skills-based admission of immigrants at the EU level. While policy attention used to favour highly skilled migrants, it has now been recognised that access for lower-skilled migrants should also be made easier. The EU’s New Pact on Migration and Asylum promotes revamping of existing skilled migration schemes. If EU migration policies could be less fragmented and matching migrants’ skills with EU labour market needs improved, in the long run, regular migration could have greater positive impact on the economic and social development of receiving societies as well as migrants and their families. 

Signals of change: IZA institute, JRC, Center for Global Development, OECD

With the number of migrant children rising, diversity in EU societies will grow

Although many countries have reduced the numbers of people living in extreme poverty, global wealth and income inequality is growing. In the past decade alone the number of billionaires has doubled. The share of national income going to the top 10% of earners has either grown or stayed high in most parts of the world. Wealthier individuals receive higher returns to their wealth. Decreasing numbers of children, especially in developed countries will result in wealth being transferred to fewer inheritors and this will drive greater concentration of wealth in the future. Concentration of wealth goes hand in hand with the concentration of power and with having too much influence on setting the rules of the game for everyone. This has become intensified by the COVID-19 pandemic. Excessive inequality can threaten democracy and social cohesion and eventually hold back economic growth.

Signals of change: OECD, JRC, FRA, OECD

Public perceptions of migration and integration is linked to trust in institutions

Migration to a richer European country opens the prospect of higher income, better quality of life, career opportunities and freedoms than migrants might not have at home. But on the receiving end, migration may also trigger concerns, public anxiety and political disputes. Eurobarometer surveys show that between 2015 and 2019, high shares of people mentioned immigration as one of the most important challenges for the EU. However, immigration figured less prominently when asked about challenges faced by their countries or issues important to people personally. Perceiving migration as an important issue does not necessarily equal to negative views. In the EU, 38% of people saw it as a problem in 2018 while 20% perceived it as a solution. For another third, migration was equally a problem and a solution. Those more sceptical about immigration are also likely to trust the EU less. Research indicates that the loss of trust in the ability of governments to control inflows of immigrants and successfully manage integration can be a more important driver of public anxiety and negative views than sudden inflows of immigrants.

Signals of change: JRC, EUROBAROMETER, Migration Policy Centre, Migration Policy Institute 

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What lessons will be drawn from the demonstrated importance of migrant workers to EU’s economies and societies during the COVID-19 crisis? 

• Will migrants’ important contribution be reflected in the public perception of immigration or could the looming economic crisis increase public anxiety about migrant workers taking away jobs and services from the natives?