Trend: Established practices are questioned

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

A side effect of environmental action is that established belief systems and behavioural patterns are under pressure to change, in order to reduce the environmental impact of humanity.

Businesses are increasingly driving the green transition, instead of being driven by regulation and standards. With the climate crises undeniable, many have woken up to the fact that food production and infrastructure was not designed for extreme weather. Decision making flows in the context of environmental action are becoming reversed, from top-down decision making, to bottom-up movements that involve ordinary citizens. Consumers are changing their ways of living in order to reduce their environmental footprint, and are living more healthily. Lastly, regulatory frameworks are starting to become more effective in putting a price tag on polluting commons, such as air, soil and water quality.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Climate change and environmental degradation

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

It’s the environment, stupid!

As young people with high environmental sensitivity transition into professional roles, staff are becoming more impactful in turning companies ‘green’. This has led to management performance in companies being more and more tied to sustainability targets, instead of only financial metrics alone. Also financing is being redirected to green economic sectors. Pension funds are divesting from fossil fuels assets and investing less in ‘climate-unfriendly’ businesses. On the other hand, ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) investments are increasing, as investors emphasise sustainability. Very recently, banks have started to cut their exposure to climate risks, for example by pricing in the adverse effects of climate policy on fossil fuels businesses, or by not giving out loans to fossil fuel sectors.

Signals of change: Egli, Schärer, and Steffen, Bloomberg, Platinga and Scholtens

From top-down to bottom-up

Environmental action is becoming more localised. For example, with the Covenant of Mayors, local governments have come together to support local climate and energy action. The European Climate Pact invites people, communities and organisations to participate in climate action and build a greener Europe. Citizen science has emerged as a powerful tool to deal with social, environmental, and territorial issues. Its increased visibility can help to collect and interpret data, and to promote the dissemination of scientific results. Indigenous knowledge on climate action has entered the focus of attention as it can also be beneficial. It is a major resource of knowledge on how to adapt to climate change and can help in situations where there is a lack of formal data on environmental conditions in particular.

Signals of change: EC, Covenant of mayors, Petzold et al

I can change, I promise

Human behaviour is changing to reduce our environmental impact. Behavioural changes can support the speed at which the EU becomes climate neutral and can increase the cost-efficiency of the climate transition. Such changes include the way we live and the choice of products consumed, for example using a train instead of an aeroplane for medium-distance travel, reducing a room's temperature (and wearing more clothes) in one's home during cold periods, or eating less meat. While many are waking up and changing behaviour, some are not and still downplay the problems.

Signals of change: Tilman, NewYorkTimes

Regulation Rules

Revisions of existing and newly adopted EU environmental legislation could have an increased impact on reducing pollution. For example, while the price for allowances in the EU Emission Trading System was below 10 EUR for a long time, it increased to over 90 EUR in 2022. In addition to EU-wide legislation, some Member States have implemented additional measures to put a price tag on pollution. Big polluters have been sued over their role in damaging the environment. For example, RoyalDutch Shell was ordered to meet its duty of care and substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Lastly, local ecosystems (the Whanganui River in New Zealand, and the Ganga and Yamuna Rivers in India for example) have gained the status of ‘ legal persons’. The first ecosystem to gain similar rights in the EU could be the Mar Menor in Spain.

Signals of change: NYTimes, ECB, The Conversation

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What if substantial systematic change will lead to greater social conflict?
• What if public support disappears and governments come into force that revert the environmental laws?
• What if Europe can no longer comply with the new regulations due to too much pressure on the energy sector because of the war in Ukraine?
• What if EU doesn´t have natural resources to achieve the changes?