Trend: Escalating Green Action and Cities

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

In relation to ‘green action’, cities and citizens are increasingly taking matters into their own hands, rather than waiting for government action. Mayors of cities are increasingly stepping up to take action and stimulate public engagement towards local solutions for climate change and carbon neutral cities. Many cities are working towards the UN’s sustainable development goals (SDGs). At the local level, neighbourhood and communities are increasingly getting together to co-design public spaces and regenerate biodiversity and ecosystem services, while finding alternative sources of food and income.

This strive for carbon neutral cities carries the risk of ‘greenwashing’, with private investors focusing on richer parts of cities and their population. City governments are increasingly being called upon to justify the effectiveness of public actions and ensure more equity in access to green urban spaces. This includes reflecting on the value of urban spaces and their use for collective interests.

JRC, Energy Cities, Urban Climates, EC Circular Economy and cities, EC, OECD, ICLEI

This Trend is part of the Megatrend: Continuing Urbanisation

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Integrating sustainable development goals (SDGs) into cities strategies

The sustainable development goals and the UN 2030 Agenda for SDGs are a coordinated effort to achieve a better future for everyone. An increasing number of cities and local governments in Europe and around the world have started measuring and evaluating their achievement towards the SDGs, and others have committed to do it soon.

This bottom-up movement is spreading globally, highlighting the critical role of local governments and communities in shaping a sustainable future. More than 30 cities, provinces and regions of the EU have developed local 2030 Agendas and published the SDG Voluntary Local Reviews (VLRs), integrating SDG monitoring into their strategic plans and recovery actions. However, the EU’s overall consolidated leadership in ‘place-based’ regional and urban policy is not well-reflected in a similar leading role in SDG localisation yet.

Signals of change: EC JRC, IISD,

Nature positive

Nature-based solutions (NBS) present a credible and efficient means to address issues such as climate change, biodiversity reduction, heath waves and high carbon emissions. The European Commission (2015) defines NBS as: “solutions that are inspired and supported by nature, which are cost-effective, simultaneously provide environmental, social and economic benefits and help build resilience. Such solutions bring more, and more diverse, nature and natural features and processes into cities, landscapes and seascapes, through locally adapted, resource-efficient and systemic interventions”.

Several key EU policy agendas and initiatives emphasise the key role played by NBS, as for example the European Green Deal, the EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 (EC, 2020), and the EU Strategy on Adaptation to Climate Change (EC, 2021). The EU’s Research and Innovation (R&I) policy agenda on NBS and Re –Naturing Cities aims to position the EU as leader in ‘Innovating with nature’ for more sustainable and resilient societies. One of its objectives is to ´advance the development, uptake and upscale of innovative NBS´.

Signals of change: JRC, UIA, Urbinat, EC, EC Bauhaus, 

Cities and climate tech investment

The Biden Administration has made significant climate commitments in the US, but the real action in 2022 will continue to be at the city and state level, and in corporate boardrooms. The market (and millennial customer demands) will drive climate neutrality in the absence of unified federal policy. Municipalities, which have seen a 21% drop in revenue and a 17% increase in expenses related to COVID-19 response, will start actively experimenting with new ways to boost their coffers without directly raising taxes. And entrepreneurs will play a significant role by bringing new solutions and business models to the table.  

As a result, urban tech and climate tech investment will continue to outpace the overall venture market, with electric mobility, proptech and housing, distributed energy and automation continuing to gain steam. But the public markets' bubble can't inflate indefinitely.

New forms of investment are appearing that can drive climate innovation. For example a new generation of ‘patient’ venture capital focused on combatting climate change has emerged. Here, investors expect a return within twenty, instead of the usual five years (e.g.s Breakthrough Energy Ventures, the Climate Pledge Fund, the Bezos Earth Fund, the Climate Innovation Fund and the Climate & Nature Fund). 

Signals of change: NLC, PWC, Smart cities Dive, CTVC

Don't take the car

Congestion continues to rise in cities, and time lost to traffic congestion is estimated to cost the equivalent of 2% GDP in Europe, 2–5% in Asia. The ownership of private vehicles will likely decrease in the future, as ‘mobility as a service (MaaS)’ - combining multiple modes of transport - becomes increasingly more prominent in cities. Already more than 40% of trips are made on foot or by bike in Copenhagen, Helsinki, Amsterdam and Vienna. Capital cities have the lowest rates of residents using cars, although the variations amongst cities are stark: from over 70% in Lefkosia (CY) to less than 10% in Paris (FR). Multimodal mobility options coupled with behavioural change, and with technology, (see Digitalisation of cities trend), have the potential to solve some of today's urban mobility challenges for the future.

Spaces in cities are being used in novel ways and coupled with technology (apps on phones) sustainable travel is being incentivised. For e.g. in Finland ’mobility credits’ are given for use of public transport, and electric vehicle use is being catalysed by the recycling of unused parking garages (for e.g. the skyports for future taxis, electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircrafts).

In contrast to those increasingly choosing not to take the car in general, for a short while the pandemic led to a spiked decrease in the use of public transport, and people went back to using personal cars. Though less COVID-19 has brought the cars and traffic back and people returned to public transport. In essence people are still preferring less crowded transport when they can and micro mobility options (bicycles). Many cities are currently investing in local mobility plans, car-free city centres, including the improvement of walkability, and cycling paths– the pandemic has shown the importance of having areas of work-live-play close by – eg. the “15-minute city” concept.

Signals of change: Polis, Euronews, EC JRC, EC, Sci Direct, Aviation Today, TTI, BBC, BBC 2

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Can the small scale / pilot initiatives currently developed in some cities be implemented as scale across the EU and quickly
• Will the green measures taken be sufficiently resilient to climate change and extremes to come?
• How much of the food / resources consumed by cities could be produced (recycled) locally?
• Technological advancement will be pivotal in our efforts to become truly sustainable.
• What policy relevant tools do we need to have in place and in the pipeline to  contribute to needs in investment support for the technology at city, government and EU level?