Trend: Diverse drivers of migration

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

The number of people living outside of their country of birth has been growing continuously, from 153 million in 1990, to an estimated 281 million in 2020. These figures reflect both that the global population has increased, and that while the share of people who migrate remains a small minority of the overall population, it too is increasing slightly - from 2.8% in 1990 to 3.6% in 2020.  This increase also reflects a decline in return migration and increasing life expectancy of all, migrants included. Most international migrants are young and economically active and move to higher-income countries. Many migrants remain within their region of origin, for example, over 60% of international migrants in sub-Saharan Africa move to countries within that region. Involuntary migration, for example as a result of war, crisis or climate change, has grown much faster than voluntary migration in the past years.

People migrate for a number of reasons, and there may be many factors behind a persons’ decision to migrate, including subjective perceptions and aspiration. Disparities in income and economic opportunities are among the most important drivers of international migration. Other drivers include social and human security, as well as existing ethnic and diaspora networks (i.e. other migrants from the same origin country). Climate change is much debated as a driver of future migrations, but the link between the two is often indirect and complex. These factors will remain relevant in the future, and so will migration.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Increasing significance of migration

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

Most migrants settle in higher-income countries, looking for work

More migrants than ever before live in high-income countries today. A large majority of international migrants reside in countries offering the greatest opportunities for migrants and their families. As of 2020, 65 % of all international migrants worldwide lived in high-income countries.  At the same time, low- and middle-income countries hosted around 80% of the world’s refugees and asylum seekers in 2020. In 2020, the countries with the highest number of foreign-born residents, regardless of when they entered the country, were the United States, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Russia.

On average, migrant populations (both voluntary and involuntary) are younger than native populations. This is because people tend to be most mobile at a younger adult age. In 2020, 73% of the global stock of people living outside their country of origin were of working age (20-64 years) and only 15% were below the age of 20. The majority of adult migrants are economically active, but migrant women are less likely to be employed than migrant men. Therefore, increasing migrant women’s labour market participation could be a game changer for the living standards of migrant populations, and could also help address the gaps in labour force in host countries.

Signals of change:

Involuntary migration has grown much faster than voluntary migration

Involuntary migration has grown significantly faster than voluntary migration in the past decade. Between 2010 and 2019, the number of recognised or registered refugees doubled from 10 to 20.4 million. In 2022, there were 37 million refugees and asylum seekers according to the UNHCR. The majority of people seeking international protection stay close to home, in countries neighbouring their own. If they have a choice, refugees’ preferences for a destination country are influenced by its economic conditions, the presence of diaspora and a common language.

In 2022, the vast majority of refugees come from just a few countries, namely Syria, Venezuela, Afghanistan and South Sudan, with Turkey hosting the largest number of refugees and people in refugee-like situation (primarily Syrians). Due to the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine in 2022, the number of people who fled the Ukraine in the EU had risen to almost 4.5 million by December 2022 (UNHCR, 2022). Displacement of people who stay within the borders of their own country is also growing rapidly. By the end of 2021, 59.1 million people had been internally displaced as a result of conflict and violence as well as disasters (IDMC, 2022).

Signals of change: European University Institute, UN DESA, IOM's GMDAC

Migrant networks are more important drivers of migration than population growth

High numbers of children born in low- and lower-middle income countries do not result in higher levels of emigration from those countries. On the contrary, emigration from low-income countries rises when fertility rates go down. This is due to the fact that high fertility usually coincides with poverty, which makes it harder for people to leave their country. A much better predictor of future migration dynamics is the existence of networks between people in countries of origin and the diaspora abroad, and the related development of ”migration corridors”. Such networks lower the cost of migration and offer orientation and initial support in a new place. At the same time, having compatriots (migrants coming from the same country) living abroad, offers young people the opportunities for family migration.

Signals of change: Knowledge Centre on Migration and Demography, OECD, JRC 

As people adapt to climate change, some may choose to migrate while others remain trapped

Climate change is a much discussed and contested driver of migration and displacement. The estimates of the numbers of people displaced due to climate-related reasons to date, and for the future, vary greatly. It is uncontested that sudden-onset disasters, such as extreme weather events, are the most important reason for internal and shorter-term displacement. However, there is scarce evidence that extreme weather conditions and climate change have – so far – led to more longer-term international migration towards Europe and other regions of the global North.

The effects of climate change on international migration towards higher-income countries are mostly indirect and mediated by other factors such as socioeconomic situation. With more frequent heat waves and extreme precipitation, many governments will be harder pressed to deal with food insecurity, water scarcity and competition for resources. The Russian aggression in Ukraine has included the weaponisation of food supplies, as the blockade of wheat and other food exports from Ukraine affects developing countries in the global South the most. These factors can drive general insecurity, conflict and consequently also migration or displacement. However, in lower-income countries, these developments can also reduce people’s resources to the point that they are not able to migrate.

Signals of change: UNHCR, IOM's GMDAC, Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Will existing global inequalities in people’s access to migration be heightened because of new restrictions and health-related measures? 

• What if the Russian military aggression continues in the EU neighbourhood?

• Could we be able to predict migration more precisely in the future?

• With growing availability of data on human mobility and new innovative modelling approaches, will scientists create scenarios on future population exposure and vulnerability to climate change?