Differences in opportunities

Trend: Differences in opportunities

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

The most important reasons for international migration are differences in income and economic opportunities between countries, varying levels of social and human security as well as existing ethnic and diaspora networks. These factors will remain relevant in the future and so will migration.

Poverty or population growth aren’t the most important drivers of migration. Potential migrants’ links to people who already emigrated play a greater role. Conflict and violence will continue to figure as important factors too. Climate change is much debated as a driver of future migrations but the link between the two is indirect. It is mediated by other factors such as socioeconomic development and therefore hard to determine. Estimates of future increases in migration due to climate change are inconclusive and vary greatly. 
 

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Increasing significance of migration

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

The relationship between economic growth and migration is complex and evolving

Contrary to popular belief, extreme poverty is not a driver of international migration because people in poorest countries lack financial resources and human capital to migrate. Emigration from poorer countries actually increases with economic growth together with people’s ability and aspirations to migrate. This is a robust historical observation but there is not a causal relationship between economic growth and levels of emigration. Recent research shows that supporting economic development in low-income countries can coincide with less emigration.

Signals of change: IZA institute, International Migration, IFW Kiel, KNOWMAD

Social networks are more important drivers of migration than population growth

High numbers of children born in low- and lower-middle income countries do not result to higher levels of emigration from those countries. To the contrary, emigration from low-income countries rises when fertility rates go down. This is due to the fact that high fertility usually coincides with poverty which makes it harder for people to leave their country. A much better  predictor of future migration flows is the existence of networks between people in sending countries and the diaspora abroad. Such networks lower the cost of migration and offer orientation and initial support in a new place. At the same time, having compatriots living abroad offers young people the opportunities for marriage migration.

Signals of change: JRC, Social networks & migration, JRC

Conflict and violence will remain strong drivers of migration

Armed conflict and high levels of violence continue to drive international migration. The majority of people seeking international protection stay close to home in countries neighbouring their own. If they have a choice, refugees’ preferences for a destination country are influenced by its economic conditions, the presence of diaspora as well as a common language. Higher rates of asylum recognition by host countries also act as an important pull factor. It is impossible to say whether COVID-19 will dramatically affect the trajectory of major wars or lead to new ones. But there are already signs of significant reduction of budgets supporting peacekeeping missions and vulnerable populations in war zones. This could make conflict resolution and reconstruction efforts more difficult. Conflicts are therefore expected to continue driving forced migration in the near future.

Signals of change: JRC, UNHCR, Crisis Group

Some adapt to climate change by migrating, others remain trapped

Climate change is a much discussed and contested driver of migration. Estimates of numbers of people displaced by climate-related reasons to date and in the future vary greatly. It is uncontested that extreme weather events are the most important reason for internal and shorter-term displacement. However, there is scarce evidence that extreme weather conditions and climate change have – so far – led to more longer-term international migration towards Europe and other regions of the global North. The effects of climate change on migration are mostly indirect and mediated by other factors such as socioeconomic situation. With more frequent heat waves and extreme precipitation, many governments will be harder pressed to deal with food insecurity, water scarcity and competition for resources. These factors can drive general insecurity and consequently also migration. However, in poorer countries, these developments can also reduce people’s resources to the point that they won’t be able to migrate. 

Signals of change: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, JRC, Nature Climate Change, Haas H., World Bank, UK Government Office for Science

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Could we be able to predict migration flows more precisely in the future? 

• With growing availability of data on human mobility and new innovative modelling approaches, could scientists create scenarios on future population exposure and vulnerability to climate change?