Trend: Continuing complexity of migration governance

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

Migration governance encompasses migration of different types, such as labour migration, irregular migration, refugees, and migrants arriving through family reunification initiatives. Governing mixed migration populations remains a global challenge, approaches differ between countries, and common approaches are insufficiently developed, even if new approaches have emerged. Comprehensive migration partnerships with countries remain difficult to achieve and EU countries continue to have diverging views on the coordination and collaboration of migration governance.

Although migration within Europe has intensified in recent decades, migrants moving to traditional immigration countries (such as Australia, Canada, the USA) are more likely to settle permanently, and have a clearer pathway to citizenship than migrants moving to, or within the EU. In contrast, almost no migrants moving to the Gulf States have a chance of becoming 'naturalised'. Migration governance in OECD countries has tended towards growing complexity and more visa and border restrictions in the past three decades.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Increasing significance of migration

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change. 

There is a demand for new approaches to governing labour migration

Europe will continue to be an important host for refugees and family reunification. Many migrants who come to the EU via these channels, women in particular, take a long time to join the labour market. These delays are also a consequence of temporary employment bans that are imposed in many EU countries on the recently arrived asylum seekers. For years, there have been calls to address shortages of labour and skills by using skills-based admission of immigrants at the EU level.

While policy attention used to favour highly skilled migrants, it has now been recognised that access for lower-skilled migrants should also be made easier too. The EU’s Pact on Migration and Asylum promotes the revamping of existing skilled migration schemes through Talent Partnerships. If EU migration policies could be less fragmented and if the matching of migrants’ skills with EU labour market needs improved, in the long run regular migration could have a greater positive impact on the economic and social development of receiving societies, as well as for migrants and their families.

Signals of change: IOM, EESC, European Migration Network

Increasing securitisation in migration governance and partnerships with countries in migrant regions of origin and transit

Some countries have been looking to outsource or ‘externalise’ parts of migration governance, primarily the processing of asylum seekers. A new development of this trend can be seen in the different agreements/memorandums of understanding that the Danish and UK governments have signed with Rwanda, to process asylum seekers in Rwanda, and ultimately grant asylum in Rwanda as well. The EU’s funding for countries to host refugees, as is the case for Turkey hosting Syrian refugees, is another example of this trend. This type of approach to migration governance aims to alleviate pressure on EU countries hosting migrants, in part through deterrence. It may also be preventing migrants from undertaking dangerous journeys to reach EU countries.

Signals of change: The Economist, Migration Policy Institute, Bloomberg, Reuters

Climate-related migration and the question of governance

Predictions of the coming impacts of climate change point to a significant shift in the location of habitable places on Earth. Climate change is likely to make conditions untenable in many highly populated areas of today. While many people will adopt mitigation measures, adapt to new weather etc. and try to stay in their homes, climate change impacts such as uninhabitable temperatures, severe droughts, and floods could push many people to move. This displacement may remain regional, or within a country, depending on the means people have to migrate.

A possible scenario is a significant displacement or migration of people to major cities in developing countries, for example Addis Ababa and Mexico City, which would place a heavy pressure on resources and space there. This indicates the need to be able to respond quickly to potentially large numbers of people moving and eventually migrating, as the result of climate change, among other factors for the future. Migration governance may in the future need to further incorporate and find new solutions for effective emergency response and longer-term hosting of migrants – at all levels of governance. The current estimates of potential climate refugees range from 25 million to 1.5 billion by 2050 (globally).

Signals of change: New York Times, The Conversation, WEF

Using new data sources for migration governance

New sources of data may play a growing role in migration governance. Data about waves of migration, or intentions to migrate can be drawn from sources such as surveys, geospatial data, satellite imagery, mobile device data, and social media. While their use in migration statistics is limited so far, there is potential for their wider use, including in migration governance decisions. In particular, these data sources may prove valuable for addressing urgent data and other needs in cases of crises, such as natural disasters or violent conflicts.

Signals of change: IOM, JRC

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What if outsourcing asylum seekers processes to non-EU countries becomes mainstream?
• Will a new protection category be created for people forced to migrate because of climate change?
• What if AI is widely used to process and support migration application processes?