Trend: Competition in Space

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

There are new business opportunities out there in Space. New actors, in particular private companies and government space organisations are entering the field of space exploration. This is boosting innovation, but could lead to a 'wild west', of those fighting to get their hands on valuable resources, and those wanting to do some leisurely space travel. The increasing importance of space dominance and the value of space assets in domains such as connectivity, resource exploration, surveillance, operational support and scientific research is leading to investment (in Space Defence and Awareness). Countries and businesses are treating cybersecurity and other countermeasures as crucial capacities to ensure business continuity in an increasing tense and competitive environment. Like in the beginning of the Space Age, Geopolitics is an important driver for technology development on this field.New technologies can provide new ways to provide communication and other services from satellites.

Asteroids can contain very valuable minerals, offering possibilities for asteroid mining. Mining asteroids, or doing the calculations necessary for space travel and operations in space have one common requirement - access to energy. The number of ways to generate energy on earth are many and evolving as we decarbonise to address the climate crises. The ways to generate energy in Space could learn from these and provide new sources of energy. ‘digital twin’.  For example, personal digital twins have their application in the healthcare, which presents a particular challenge: should all personal digital tracks be accessible, or should access be granted only on a selected track chosen by the individual concerned. 

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Accelerating technological change and hyperconnectivity

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Investment in Space is crucial to fight climate change

Governments are investing in space applied technologies and innovations in order to address challenges related to climate change. Businesses are also looking at these issues as a focus of research and activity, following up on the importance of decarbonisation economic activity.

In this fields, several applications are already ongoing that depend heavily on satellites such as: identification of sources of green-house gas emissions; monitoring of thermal emissions in buildings; mapping tree coverage to fight deforestation while assessing the capacity of trees to capture and store carbon; fighting illegal fishing; and predicting flood damage.

Signals of change: Forbes, RAND, Wired

Self-powered satellites providing fast internet access from space

Ubiquitous, real-time, and high-capacity connectivity is ‘the holy-grail’ sought by industry and society. It is also in demand for building the necessary infrastructure to provide 5G and 6G (i.e. the 5th and 6th generation telecommunications technology) which are already on our doorstep. 5G and 6G have become the battlefield of today’s digital super-powers (the US and China). Global satellite constellations promise to provide this needed ubiquitous, low-latency (short delay), and high-band internet access, and new types of small, cheap and rapidly manufactured satellites could unfold IoT connectivity everywhere.

In addition to providing internet access and making connectivity more accessible, countries and businesses are exploring the use of satellites and other space assets for the provision of new services. They can be used for instance, for cloud computing, performing calculations with servers located within the satellite, leading to the possibility of future cloud-based companies that exist only in space. This, and other uses, call for new regulations for ‘Space-based’ businesses. All of these developments could be future game changers for our current digital and data-based economy models.

All of the work-related activities in space will need some source of energy. Asteroid mining is energy consuming, but so too is performing AI calculations. Having both types of businesses running in space, i.e. the energy provision solution provided in space in parallel to the work offers some benefits, but also some potential threats. What will happen if the AI machines stop taking instructions from outside and are only implemented inside the satellite?  

Signals of change: How Stuff Works, Business Insider, The Conversation, BBC, DataCentreKnowledge, 7News

Asteroid mining

Asteroids offer a source of rare earth elements, metals and minerals in large amounts. Gaining access to these could lead to a new aggressive and competitive landscape, with a race between different entrepreneurs from the private world - with profit in mind, or governments - who also want to secure access to the scarce materials for their people's interests. Regulation will be needed to control and monitor who can access asteroids and how the profit and raw material gained from the activity is monitored and distributed. Difficulties include the high costs of space travel (and propulsion technologies) and extraction challenges, as well as the risks that come with any mining venture. 

Signals of change: NASA, MIT

Space debris / pollution

Space activities by different countries and organisations are expected to further increase. New satellites, new space stations, private companies offering trips to space, as well as mining for new minerals, are all increasing the traffic. Traces from all of the previous decades of space traffic have left their mark as pollution. The amount of debris currently floating in space from old satellites and other particles cannot be ignored and/or neglected. Future space launches and travel will need to take the location of each of these ‘space litters’ into account when planning a launch and travelling so as not to collide. Space traffic and debris monitoring systems are under development and aim to provide this information and recycling of space assets could be a reality soon.

Signals of change: Springer Technology Knowledge and Learning, Earth Observatory, Space

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• What kind of clashes between public and/or private organisations will we see, and how can a balance of competition and cooperation stimulate innovation on this field?
• What if space becomes too saturated with debris to launch new satellites?
• What new economic activities in Space, on earth, or hybrid, satellites and other space assets could foster progress?
• How can we justify the price of space travel for leisure when millions of people go without basic needs? Can we justify it by saying “rich people can spend their money as they wish, same as anyone”, and/or “If we destroy the earth, we need this innovation to create to a liveable ‘Space’”?
• What does internet access mean if it is provided by satellites? Could internet access be limited when satellites are above some countries and contractual agreements between the country and the satellite provider limit what internet access is allowed? Would this lead to censorship?
• There are limited raw-material resources on earth, how will asteroid mining rights be distributed?