Trend: Changing conflict causalities 2021

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

The unequal distribution of resources and access to critical resources has historically been a strong driver of global tensions and conflicts. Climate change and the related frequent extreme weather events that are occurring, together with environmental degradation from human activity, is increasing pressure on societies and economies around the world. These developments are putting pressure on the stability of communities, driving migration and triggering, escalating and sustaining conflicts.

The resources which are the source of conflicts are changing significantly too, evolving with technological innovations, perceived scarcities, and inter-state dependencies. In the coming decades focus is going to move away from traditional energy resources such as oil and gas, towards resources that are relevant for the green transition, high-tech industry and dual-use technologies.

There are growing inequalities between and within countries that affect regional and international stability and that could drive future conflicts. Different forms of inequality have led to reduced social cohesion and a more polarized political landscape within society, which carries the potential of increasing tensions and even sparking violent conflict. The rising availability of smartphones in combination with internet access has offered many the chance for a better education, as well as access to news, on-the-go banking and so on. At the same time, it is also a direct portal for ‘fake news’, propaganda and manipulation, facilitating the spread of misinformation and increasing political polarization. Increased access to online media is also a portal for those who are deprived to see other parts of the world and its community that have a better lot, and therefore contributes to mobility as a driver of migration.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Changing security paradigm

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Environmental pressures

The least-developed and developing countries are the most affected by climate change challenges, because they are often located in the areas most affected by climate change and also because they lack the financial resources to mitigate climate change impacts. The governments of these same countries are lagging behind in their preparation efforts to reduce negative impacts, which will compound them even further.

While some countries in the colder climates could potentially benefit from climate change in the long term in some ways, in the medium term climate change brings enormous uncertainties, crises (such as drought or flooding) and challenges as whole ecosystems shift and species migrate to follow the changing climate, (including forests). Climate migration will have an impact on a global scale, with northern countries being the most attractive destinations.

Signals of change: SIPRI, National Geographic, Council on Strategic Risks

Global competition for resources

The unequal access to and distribution of natural resources has historically been a strong driver of tensions and conflicts. The resources which are the source of conflicts shift over time, depending on technological innovations, perceived scarcities, and inter-state dependencies. In the coming decades the focus is going to move away from traditional energy resources such as oil and gas, and towards resources that are relevant for the green transition, as well as high-tech industry.

As actors face each other in international competition, a fertile ground for future conflicts is created. The degradation of the environment and the climate crises are other factors which will influence the availability of many basic resources and there is an increasing risk of associated tensions and conflicts focused on water, food, and health security.

Signals of change: EEA, PNAS, VOA

Shifting patterns of inequality

There are growing inequalities between and within countries that affect regional and international stability and which could drive future conflicts. Globalization has enabled some countries to take advantage of international trade, but in many countries only a small minority have been able to benefit from the global trade and resource flows. In combination with growing environmental pressures and rising mobility, media and access to education and healthcare, inequality is a motivating factor for regional and global migration, which in turn can increase instability and conflict potential, especially for countries that don’t have the ability to cushion such impacts.

In contrast, the partial de-industrialization of many developed countries has created more divided societies, especially in the US and Europe. The industrial worker base and the parts of the labour force without a tertiary/third level education have increasingly been left behind, while the highly educated parts of the labour force benefited disproportionately from globalization. The rise of populism is only one of the symptoms of this development. Combined with factors such as the impact of social media, these different forms of inequality have led to reduced social cohesion and a more polarized political landscape within societies and carries the potential to intensify tensions and even spark violent conflict.

Signals of change: Harvard, The Wire, PRIO

Rising media access and disinformation

In less developed countries, the increasing availability of smartphones and internet access is a gateway to new sources of global information. Grievances over the unequally divided benefits of globalization and global development combined with knowledge about more comfortable lifestyles in other parts of the world, and a better awareness of exploitation and political mismanagement, can drive civil unrest. In combination with increased mobility, these developments can lead to more migration, largely within, but also between countries. The complex interaction between social media, access to information, and easier mobilization, can create tensions within societies, not only between the well-off and those left behind, but also between liberal/globalist forces and conservative/nationalist parts of a democratic society. Also clashes of culture and beliefs.

The erosion of trust in democratic political institutions and experts has opened up a space for those who want to manipulate the public debate. Today’s information environment - with the prevalent role of social media - offers a direct platform for communication that is prone to misinformation, often spread intentionally and reinforced by the numerous repetitions of messages and their perceived credibility - as they are shared and ‘liked’ by respected community members. Deciphering fact from fiction is ever more challenging. New actors and networks in governance can relatively easily be created, even spontaneously, such as manifestations in response to certain events (e.g. COVID pandemic anti-lockdown movements). 

Signals of change: Ploughshares, Sage-Journal of Conflict Resolution, Berkley, Vox, Sage-Media War & Conflict, Premium Times

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• Migration will continue, pushed by the climate change crises and political instabilities. What position should the EU take on this emergency?

• Fake news and the manipulation of public opinion is creating political instabilities in liberal democracies. To what extent will social media continue to drive political polarisation? Is it necessary to develop a stricter level of control on these media? What is the trade-off between autarchy and defence of the democratic institutions?

• How can you tell what is fake news and misinformation and how can you teach people these digital skills (i.e. digital literacy)?