Trend: Age structures more uneven

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

Population age structures are becoming more uneven. While the share of elderly in the population is increasing globally, in many countries the share of youth cohorts is still the largest. Different levels of immigration and emigration can deepen, offset, or even reverse population decline in the short term.

High-income countries are ageing and this trend is becoming increasingly relevant in middle-income countries too. Africa is expected to account for the largest share of the world's youth cohorts in the future. Alongside fertility and mortality, the size and structure of populations is also importantly influenced by immigration and emigration. Without it the EU population would be shrinking overall. 

This Trend is part of the  Megatrend  Increasing demographic imbalances

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Ageing societies in some regions

Globally, ageing has not been an issue until recently. The share of the global population of over 65-year-olds only increased from about 5 % in 1960 to 9 % in 2020. However, when looking at changes at regional levels, it becomes apparent that demographic ageing has already set in in high-income countries and becomes increasingly relevant in middle-income countries. The global median age is projected to rise from 31 years in 2020 to 36 years by 2050 and to 42 years by 2100. According to the UN projections, the number of people above age 65 globally will more than double, from 700 million in 2020 to 1.5 billion in 2050. 

In the EU, the number of EU citizens aged 65 to 74 years is projected to increase by 17.6 %, the age group of 75 to 84 years is projected to expand by 60.5 % by 2050. The number of very old people i.e. aged 85 and above, is projected to grow by 130.3 %. Almost half a million EU citizens could be over 100 years old in 2050.

China is also expected to experience demographic ageing and a shrinking workforce, and as one of the world’s most populous countries and a major economic player, the ripple effects of this are likely to be felt globally.

Signals of change: World Bank, UN DESA, UN DESA, Eurostat

Youth bulges in other regions

The absolute number of children and youth between 0 and 24 years remains stable globally, but its share in the total population is declining in all world regions, particularly due to the growing number of people above the age of 50. While the number of children and youth in Europe has been declining since the 1980s and in Eastern Asia since the 1990s, Africa will experience the opposite development and the number of 0-24 year olds will continue to increase until the end of the century. It is estimated that it could rise from 800 million in 2020 to 1.3 billion in 2050 and 1.5 billion in 2100. According to the UN estimates, Africa is expected to account for the largest share of the world's future children and youth cohorts. It could grow from 25 % in 2020 to almost 50 % in 2100. Regions with large youth cohorts will face both the challenge and opportunity of a growing workforce, such as availability of good-quality jobs and potential emigration and brain drain.

Signals of change: UN DESA, The Brookings Institution, Africa Portal

Postive/Negative net migration

International migration has a considerable impact on population size and structure. Between 1990 and 2019, the number of people living outside of their country of birth has increased from 153 to 272 million, in line with the global population increase. For countries where the population size is decreasing due to the higher number of deaths than births, more emigration than immigration (negative net migration) can exacerbate the situation while more immigration than emigration (positive net migration) can reduce the pace of the shrinking of the population, or even reverse the trend. In countries with sustained low-levels of fertility, international migration is expected to be an increasingly important driver for mitigating population decline.

Europe was the world’s most important ‘sending region’ for a long time. It has only experienced net population gains from migration since the 1970s. Without positive net migration, Europe’s population would already be shrinking. But not all countries and regions of Europe register net gains from international migration. Some have experienced negative net migration, for example within Europe, that has heightened demographic decline. At the local level, territories are losing or gaining population through migration depending mostly on their socio-economic vitality.

Signals of change: JRC, UN DESA, UN DESA, JRC 22

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• How can policy interventions support low-income countries to harness their youth bulge and prepare for future ageing of their populations? 

• Will future migration policies be more selective or more open towards wider populations?

• Will they be determined by a country or region of origin or rather by skills and education?