The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) warn that acute food insecurity is likely to deteriorate further in 18 hunger hotspots, including a total of 17 countries or territories and one regional cluster which comprises 4 countries, during the outlook period from June to October 2024. Mali, Palestine, South Sudan and the Sudan remain at the highest concern level. Haiti was added to the list of countries/territories of highest concern due to escalating violence by non-state armed groups (NSAGs). This category includes hotspots with Famine or Risk of Famine, or with populations already in Catastrophe (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification [IPC]/Cadre Harmonisé [CH] Phase 5) or at risk of deterioration towards catastrophic conditions during the outlook period. These countries/territories require the most urgent attention.

Chad, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (eastern provinces), Myanmar, the Syrian Arab Republic and Yemen are hotspots of very high concern. All these hotspots have a high number of people facing or projected to face critical levels of acute food insecurity, coupled with worsening drivers that are expected to further exacerbate life-threatening conditions in the coming months. Since the October 2023 edition, the Central African Republic, Lebanon, Mozambique, Myanmar, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Zambia have been added to the list of hunger hotspots, while Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi, Somalia and Zimbabwe remain hunger hotspot countries.

The countries/territories covered in this report highlight the most significant, likely deteriorations of acute hunger expected in the outlook period but do not represent all situations with high levels of acute food insecurity. Armed violence and conflict remain the primary causes of acute food insecurity across numerous hunger hotspots. In these situations, widespread displacement, destruction of food systems and reduced humanitarian access are likely to worsen food availability and access. In the Near East and North Africa region, the ongoing conflict in Palestine is expected to further aggravate the unprecedented death toll, widespread destruction and displacement of nearly the total population in the Gaza Strip. As of mid-March 2024, famine was projected to occur by the end of May in the two northern governorates of the Gaza Strip. Broader regional ramifications are emerging, which could exacerbate already high food security needs in Lebanon and the Syrian Arab Republic. Conflict and displacement also continue at an alarming pace and magnitude in the Sudan, deepening the burden on neighbouring countries hosting a steadily growing number of refugees and returnees – especially in South Sudan and Chad. In Yemen, anticipated increases in freight and insurance costs, due to the Red Sea crisis, are expected to push up the cost of staple foods and other imports. This will aggravate the ongoing economic crisis, compounded by increasingly low and unpredictable humanitarian assistance.

The Central Sahel region continues to experience disruptive instability, with rising violence leading to increased civilian targeting and displacement. The withdrawal of UN peacekeeping missions in Mali, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Somalia is expected to create security vacuums, which could be exploited by NSAGs – further exposing civilians to violence. In the rest of the Horn of Africa, conflict in Ethiopia will continue affecting agricultural livelihoods. The intensified conflict in Myanmar is likely to drive further displacement and restrict access to food and assistance. This is likely also to be the case in Haiti, where NSAGs force the population to leave their homes and livelihoods, including the abandonment of cropland, amid continued uncertainties about the timing of the deployment of the United Nations-authorized Multinational Security Support Mission.

Conflict and instability are compounded by a contraction of economic growth in emerging markets and developing economies. Many countries worldwide continue struggling with high debt levels – preventing many governments from protecting their most vulnerable populations – while there are no clear signs of relief from the high costs of debt. Geopolitical tensions in the Near East and North Africa region and potential new escalations remain a major risk for the global economy in 2024. Increased energy and transportation costs, currency depreciation and challenges in financing food imports could exert upward pressure on domestic prices in numerous vulnerable countries in 2024.

Weather extremes, such as excessive rains, tropical storms, cyclones, flooding, drought and increased climate variability, remain significant drivers of acute food insecurity in some countries and regions. La Niña is expected to prevail between August 2024 and February 2025, significantly influencing rainfall distribution and temperatures. This phenomenon might improve agricultural prospects, but also increases the risk of flooding, in parts of South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Haiti, Chad, Mali and Nigeria, as well as the Sudan. Due to the uncertainty of current forecasts, continuous monitoring of forecasts and their impacts on agricultural production and livelihoods remains critical.

Ongoing or planned reductions and gaps in emergency agriculture, food and livelihood assistance will continue to affect several hunger hotspots. Urgent and scaled-up assistance is therefore required in all 18 hunger hotspots to protect livelihoods and increase access to food. Decision-makers should not wait for further deterioration of food insecurity before scaling up assistance in areas classified as being in Crisis or Emergency (IPC/CH Phases 3 or 4), or which already have higher-than-average levels of excess mortality and morbidity for a sustained period. Earlier intervention can reduce food gaps and protect assets and livelihoods at a lower cost than late humanitarian response.

Further starvation and death are likely in Mali, Palestine, South Sudan, the Sudan and Haiti, without humanitarian actions and concerted international efforts that help to unblock severe humanitarian access constraints. To address and prevent famine, more investments are needed in integrated solutions that span a number of areas that do not traditionally fall within one organizational mandate, but whose end goal is to reduce food insecurity or remove vulnerable persons from a reliance on emergency food assistance. This report provides country-specific recommendations on priorities for emergency response, as well as anticipatory actions to address existing humanitarian needs and ensure short-term protective interventions before new needs materialize.