Trend: Future of the international order at a crossroads

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society.

After the fall of the Berlin Wall, a dominant mind-set existed in the West based on the belief that economic development through globalization would lead to a convergence towards liberal, political and economic values. Instead, other geopolitical trends are becoming the reality, at the same time as global cross-border challenges (such as health or climate crises) are becoming more obvious and pressing. Geopolitical trends such as: growing nationalism (i.e. support for a nation’s own interests, often to the exclusion of others); protectionism (i.e. policies restricting imports through tariffs, quotas and/or regulations to help domestic industry); and 'great power' competition (e.g. the US versus China) are dominating. In parallel, the need for multilateral cooperation for effective action on global cross-border challenges (such as health, or the climate crises) are obvious and becoming more pressing.

We have witnessed several withdrawals from international contracts and treaties in recent years, such as the Iran nuclear programme plan, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty on arms control, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the UN Human Rights Council and so on. Established international organisations such as the World Trade Organisation have been destabilized. 

Following the recent political shift in the US and their reinforced commitment to a transatlantic relationship, the 'international order' of the future might be a combination of competition and cooperation of major powers. This could lead to a mix of arrangements, such as countries cooperating on shared challenges, alongside new cooperations of networks that include countries, non-state and sub-state actors, who are providing the fabric for international cooperation on specific issues, such as sustainable development, or digitalisation.

This Trend is part of the Megatrend Expanding influence of East and South

Manifestations

Developments happening in certain groups in society that indicate examples of change related to the trend.

Emerging US-China rivalry

Following the global financial crisis, China emerged a more assertive and self-confident global economic power. This resulted in a trade war and a dynamic ideological rivalry. Economic competition and conflict over trade, economic and financial policy are now all being used politically. Technological competitions go beyond trade aspects, to the question of technical standards and ideological rivalry e.g. about data gathering, as well as processing and security questions. The ideological rivalry between China’s authoritarian order and the US’s liberal democracy, as well as between socialist, state-controlled and neo-liberal economies (i.e. those with minimised government interference in economic issues). 

Signals of change: CEBR, ISPI dossier, EurAsia group, China international strategy review

Dynamics in the development of trade agreements

The global economy is becoming more interconnected, with global supply chains i.e. networks that source and supply goods and services spreading out across the world. Advancement on global multilateral agreements - such as at the World Trade Organisation - is a difficult process, because there is a need to reach consensus. In contrast, the number of regional trade agreements and bilateral agreements are currently growing. Agreements exist between neighbouring countries who have large amounts of cross-border trade. Some are focusing on preferential trade relationships with countries of the same region, others are having a more geo-political dimension, aiming to establish a positive relationship with state(s) through easing trade, as a soft power instrument. The bilateral trade agreements and ones involving several countries globally, create multiple ‘preferential relationships’, where some countries are involved in multiple agreements that might include different trade rules, preferences and even standards. 

Signals of change: CSIS, IISS, World Bank Group, UN ESCAP

End of unipolar world – multipolarity ahead

The idea – used as a political paradigm since the end of the cold war – of creating a unipolar world that advances through global trade has failed. Following the Russian aggression towards Ukraine, many countries in Africa or amongst the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) are refusing to be pushed into one of two camps. A perceived confrontation between opposing political systems, authoritarian regimes versus democracies has been accelerated. The new geopolitical reality, where so much is both in flux and unclear, could create the space for diverse narratives and geopolitical strategies to emerge. Various powers are increasingly pursuing their own interests.

A multipolar world is the new reality, where there is a lack of coherence of geopolitical interests. Some powers are balancing their relationships with conflicting blocks. Powers such as the EU and China are competing for a good relationship to other countries globally, through initiatives such as the ‘Global Gateway’, and ‘Belt and Road' initiatives. Interests behind good relationships include responsible development perspectives, but also settling geoeconomic and geo-political interests, including creating economic and financial dependence, influence in international bodies via their partners, military presence, and so on.

Signals of change: EU ISS, Egmont Institute, Leiden security and global affairs: China interpets European Indo-\pacific policy as threat 

Taking back identity

More and more people and governments in the world are challenging the Western-framed narrative of socio-economic logic of future development. Countries across the world are taking back their identities and there is an emergence of alternative narratives of development. People and societies are built on inherently different values, cultures and heritage, and they are shaping different visions of lifestyles, the economy and democracy. Debates in the developing world show Western geopolitical actions in the developing world are (in some cases) rooted in a tainted post-colonialism relationship. Movements in the West that criticise or showcase inequalities inflame the debate; examples are the “Black lives matter” movement in the US and the rise of the far left and far right parties in Europe.

China and Russia are renewing efforts to gain influence (e.g. positioning themselves as more reliable partners than their Western counterparts during the pandemic with vaccine diplomacy), and are feeding anti-Western motives through disinformation (e.g. with a strong investment in the media), competition for partnerships, and support of anti-Western groups in regions. Countries from the South are witnessing growing cultural and social movements claiming back identity, heritage, and shaping alternative aspirations for the future, pushing back existing narratives (being from 'the West', or from China). The pandemic has given a boost to Southern countries’ (and regional organisations’) engagement in multilateralism. Many ’non-aligned’ countries are gaining a more influential role in international bodies and want to be better represented to get their voice better heard and shape the transformation of international order.

Signals of change: Financial Times, allAfrica, South China Morning Post, Mail & Guardian, #NoMore Movement

Interesting questions

What might this trend imply, what should we be aware of, what could we study in more depth? Some ideas:

• How can the EU advocate for rule based, multi-lateral world order, without being caught in the cross-fire of global power?

• As regional trade agreements are spreading with multiple objectives and levels, how could the EU balance its ambitions to move forward with progress in the European Single Market and with bilateral agreements with third countries to remain competitive, while strengthening the role of WTO?

• How can the EU prepare for a multipolar world with less international solidarity and new powers emerging?

• How can the EU strengthen its efforts in building more equal partnerships with countries across the globe and reinvent its relationship with the South?