Trend: Covid reactions

A trend indicates a direction of change in values and needs which is driven by forces and manifests itself already in various ways within certain groups in society

Demographic

A fertility decline is being observed in some countries across the globe, and uncertainty about the future could cause an acceleration of this fertility decline. It is starting to become evident in some EU countries too. 

A decline in schooling in low-income countries, particularly of girls, could reverse the ongoing fertility decline of some countries and therefore have a major impact on future fertility outcomes.

In economies with a higher percentage of 'knowledge workers', large segments of the population could choose to continue to telework and decide to move away from large city centres, causing a ‘counter-urbanization’ process.

Signals of change: Human Fertility Database, Human Rights Watch, PNAS

East & South

The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a huge global economic crisis, with global gross product (i.e. the combined national income of all the countries in the world) having fallen by 4.3 percent in 2020. Developed countries were hit the hardest. Economies in East Asia fared better and some even had a small GDP expansion. China’s quick and robust recovery might drive an East Asian economy growth of 6.4 percent in 2021.

The COVID-19 crisis led to a collapse of trade flows and supply chains everywhere, leading to disruptions in global production networks and indicating systemic lack of resilience. Global supply chains (i.e. networks across countries for the purpose of sourcing and supplying good and services) might need to become more diversified to increase resilience, i.e. new suppliers to be added, warehousing as buffers. This could offer opportunities for new regions to participate in global trade and could be used as a catalyst for their development.

The Global Vaccination Alliance is collaborating with the United Nations (UN), World Health Organisation and UNICEF to provide equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines through COVAX. The European Commission and Member States have committed about one third of their total 2021-2025 budget. Some countries, such as China, Russia and India are sending COVID-19 vaccines to selected countries. This kind of ’vaccine diplomacy’ could be seen as a ‘soft power’, being used to strengthen regional ties. Soft power refers to the ability to shape the preferences of others through appeal and attraction of international politics.
 

Signals of change: UN, EC, GAVI

Education

Education has been affected by a rapidly changing world and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Schools have been partially closed and not all students are able to follow online classes. Schooling online is obviously not the same as in-person teaching. Teachers need digital competences. At the same time remote schooling demands a lot from parents. The local communities have stepped-up to help in some areas and respect for teachers is rising again.

We do not know how this will affect the future of this current young generation of students. All of the responsible parties are working hard to provide equal rights to education for all, but COVID-19 has brought setbacks to this goal. Inequality is back on the table - for example lockdown is hiding child neglect, abuse and some students have no access to laptops, internet, heat or even food at home.
 

Signals of change: Foresight for Development, UNESCO, Springer

Migration

Economic recession coupled with high unemployment levels could reduce the demand for additional migrant labour in Europe. This would mean less labour migration to the EU in the years to come. But at the same time it is unlikely that migrant workers in certain sectors such as agriculture or healthcare can be easily replaced by native workers.

The COVID-19 pandemic has revealed that migrant workers are playing a critical role in performing basic functions in many EU countries. On average 13% of the workers in occupations that have been identified as 'essential in the response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the EU' are immigrants. This includes both mobile EU workers and workers from non-EU countries. In some segments of the labour market including health professions, personal care givers, cleaners, transport, storage workers, food processing workers, as well as labourers in mining and construction, up to a third of the workers are foreign-born. Occupations in these segments are mostly characterised by insecurity, low wages and demanding working conditions making them unattractive for natives. At the same time, migrant workers are strongly overrepresented in sectors most affected by the measures aiming to reduce the spread of the pandemic: the tourism and hospitality industries.

The COVID-19 crisis has shed sharp light on how living and working conditions of many migrants have disproportionately increased their exposure to health risks and negative impacts of the pandemic-induced economic crisis. A higher incidence of poverty, overcrowded and unstable housing conditions and over-representation in jobs where physical distancing is difficult, are among the factors that have increased the incidence of COVID-19 infections among migrants and their families.

Pandemic-related school closures and distance learning measures disproportionately harm children of immigrants. Their parents tend to have fewer resources than native-born parents to help them in their homework and home schooling. 40% of the native-born children of immigrants in OECD countries do not speak the host-country language at home. Any long-term disruption of regular face-to-face schooling can therefore have a more dramatic impact on their language abilities than in the case of native children.

The pandemic has heightened the already dire situation of marginalised groups of migrants including rejected asylum seekers who’s return cannot be enforced but is not possible, and that of irregular migrants. They remain largely beyond the scope of contributory income-support schemes and health care provisions.
 

Signals of change: JRC, JRC, JRC, OECD, OECD, Ghent University