This brief presents a compilation of key findings from an analysis of the impact of the Ukraine war on African countries. It covers the effects of global market disruptions on country terms of trade, the resulting impacts on economic growth and employment, as well as an analysis of the poverty and food security effects.

The second part of the brief focuses on sectoral effects of the crisis, covering disruptions in the wheat and vegetable oils sectors and their effects on incomes, inflation, and food security. Particular attention is paid to differences between rural and urban areas and across income groups, from the lowest to the highest quintiles.

The analysis then shifts to the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic markets and the opportunities to expand regional trade in food products in response to the crisis. The final section deals with the disruptions in the fertilizer sector and the impacts on productivity, agricultural value-added, incomes and food security.

In all the above cases, the work focuses on selected African countries, based on their direct dependency on wheat and fertilizer trade with Ukraine, Russia, and Belarus (URB) and the extent of import penetration or the ratio of imports to overall domestic consumption. The ten countries included in this study are Benin, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, Tanzania, and Uganda. The discussion on price transmission also includes Burkina Faso, Rwanda, and Zimbabwe.