This study used ecological and socioecological simulation modelling to forecast the impacts of climate change in Africa on fish stocks and the fisheries and fishing communities that depend on them, by 2050 and 2100.

Key Findings

The impacts of climate change on African fisheries will be serious, even under the most optimistic scenarios, and countries will be affected differently.

Ecological risks: African countries at low latitudes will be hardest hit. Tropical West African countries stand to be the most affected, whereas the impact on higher-latitude countries is likely to be milder.

• By 2050: The models forecasting the impacts of climate change on marine fisheries show that the maximum catch potential (MCP) will decrease by 30 percent or more in many tropical West and Central African countries, including the Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Liberia, and São Tomé and Príncipe.

• By 2100: It is likely that the largest decrease in MCP (40 percent or more) will occur in tropical West and Central African countries, including Ghana, São Tomé and Príncipe, Liberia, and Côte
  d’Ivoire.

• In higher-latitude regions, it is projected that catch potential will decrease much less, for example in Senegal, The Gambia, and Cabo Verde.

Socio-ecological risks: A distinction needs to be made between ecological risks, which, to a large extent, are beyond the control of African coastal states, and socio-ecological risks, which can be mitigated through a variety of management measures.

• The Horn of Africa, parts of West Africa, and Nigeria are particularly at risk, with climate change posing great risk to the national economies of these countries through fisheries.

The impacts of climate change on fisheries and fishing communities are not a foregone conclusion; the extent of socio-ecological risk depends on a number of important variables, including the effectiveness of fisheries management measures.