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Publication | 8 July 2021

OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2021–2030

Global Food and Nutrition Security

The OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook provides an assessment of the prospects of national, regional and global agricultural commodity markets over the coming decade. The baseline projections for production, consumption, stocks, trade and prices for cereals, oilseeds and oilseed products, roots & tubers, pulses, sugar, meat, dairy products, fish, cotton, biofuels and tropical fruits cover the years 2021 to 2030.

KEY MESSAGES

  • The global agri-food sector has shown resilience during the pandemic, but income losses and food price spikes caused undernourishment to rise.
  • Consumers in middle-income countries to increase their food intake most significantly, while diets in low-income countries to remain largely unchanged.
  • Consumption of animal protein to level off in high-income countries, while demand to remain strong in middle-income countries.
  • Slow transition towards healthier diets, fat and staples to still dominate food consumption growth.
  • Global feed demand boosted by growing livestock numbers and higher feeding intensity - dampened by improved feeding efficiency.
  • Global biofuel production growth to slow, causing biofuel share of main feedstock commodities to fall.
  • Productivity-enhancing investments are key to achieving agricultural production growth.
  • Yield improvements are expected to account for the majority of crop production growth.
  • Livestock production growth based on productivity growth and herd enlargement.
  • Carbon intensity of agricultural production is declining, but total GHG emissions to increase further to 2030.
  • Agricultural commodity trade is becoming increasingly important for food security and rural livelihoods.
  • Current price increases projected to be temporary, fundamental trends point to falling real prices in the medium term.
  • Concerted actions and additional efforts are needed at all levels in order to realize the 2030 Agenda.