This report analyses the true hidden health impacts and costs of industrial livestock systems through multiple and interconnected pathways of impact, including: 1. Unhealthy diets and food insecurity – The health impacts of unhealthy diets and excessive meat consumption contributes to malnutrition in all its forms including obesity (leading to non-communicable diseases) and food insecurity (hunger and micronutrient deficiencies).

2. Zoonotic pathogens and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) – Factory farms, characterised by substandard husbandry practices and poor animal welfare, drive the increased use of antimicrobials, and are connected to the emergence of AMR and a range of zoonotic pathogens.

3. Unsafe and adulterated foods – The health impacts of unsafe and adulterated food include illnesses arising from consumption of livestock derived foods containing food safety hazards including pathogens, chemicals, and toxicants.

4. Environmental contamination and degradation – People are exposed to health impacts from environments contaminated by livestock production and processing, including pollution of soil, air, and water.

5. Occupational hazards – These include a range of physical and mental health impacts in the workplace affecting livestock factory farmers, agricultural workers supplying feedstocks, aquaculture, abattoir, meat processing and packaging workers, livestock/meat distributors and people selling livestock foods within the marketplace.

The report includes regional synthesis.

AFRICA REGION

Key trends

• Over the next 30-40 years the demand for Livestock derived foods (LDFs) will grow rapidly in the African continent (meat consumption is forecast to grow by 30% by 2030) due to growth in human population (from 1.2 billion today to over 2.5 billion in 2050), increasing consumer purchasing power and urbanization.

• Meat consumption trends across Africa are varied; Both Ethiopia and Nigeria for example, have seen a drop in per capita meat consumption over the last 20 years standing at 3kg and 5kg respectively. In South Africa meat consumption levels increased by over 61% in the last 20 years, to 62kg per capita. Across Africa the current per capita annual consumption of meat and milk of about 14 kg and 30 litres, are projected to more than double to 26 kg and 64 L, respectively, by 2050.

• The future growth and transformation of the African livestock sector towards industrial livestock systems is happening at an unprecedented pace and scale and if uncontrolled, could also have negative effects on public health, the environment, and livelihoods. This will lead to increasing outbreaks of zoonotic diseases, such as avian influenzas and other animal food borne diseases; increasing pollution of water, air and soils by nitrates and antibiotics; and is likely to force pastoralists and small farmers to exit the livestock sector, with negative impacts on their livelihoods and food security.

ASIA REGION

Key trends

• Significant growth, driven by population increase, urbanisation, and a growing middle class, is forecast to continue to drive the industrialisation of livestock production in Asia and China in particular, posing a significant threat to public health in the years to come.

• Meat consumption, particularly of poultry meats, is expected to rise in the region by 18% by 2030, continuing to drive the demand for LDFs for both the home markets and export markets. Vietnam, Korea, Malaysia, and China have seen the highest growth in meat consumption per capita since 2000, at 161%, 81%, 56% and 24% respectively. In contrast, meat consumption in Thailand has stabilised over the same period.

• Asia is the largest meat producing region, accounting for around 45% of total meat production with significant growth in the production of pork and poultry forecast over the next 10 years. The region will account for 53% of global trade by 2029 with greatest increases originating from the Philippines and Vietnam.

• The phenomenal growth witnessed in Aquaculture over the last twenty years will continue with growth forecast to double over the next 10-20 years.

• There is also growing momentum behind higher welfare farming in Asia and animal welfare concerns are becoming increasingly important for Citizens. This awareness is likely to drive the demand for plant-based protein options with early signs that numerous Asian companies are already diversifying into plant-based proteins.

• Pressure will continue for governments to put strong policy measures in place to deal with the health impacts of industrial livestock systems with increasing support for ‘One Health’ approaches.

SOUTH AMERICA REGION

Key trends

• Argentina and Brazil have some of the highest per capita meat consumption in the world at 88kg and 79kg per annum respectively.

• Brazil is the world’s largest beef exporter, accounting for 15.4% of global production, exporting one-fifth of its total production (with China the biggest customer). In 2019, Brazil was the 4th largest pork producer in the world, with almost 4 million tons, after China, the EU, and the USA. Brazil is the world's largest exporter of chicken meat: 3.77 million tons in 2019. The trade of Brazilian meat, offal, and live cattle exports is worth more than USD 5.4 billion/year.

• Between 2021 and 2031 the production of meat (beef, pork, and poultry) is expected to increase by 6.6 million tons, which represents an increase of 24.1%. Chicken and pork show the greatest growth in the coming years: chicken meat (27.7%) and pork (25.8%) with beef production expected to grow by 17%.

• The livestock sector is notorious for its significant environmental impact, not least as a major driver of deforestation. Two-thirds of cleared land in the Amazon and Cerrado biomes have been converted to cattle pasture. These pressures will continue to grow with expansion in beef production forecast up to 2029 and beyond.

To transform livestock systems towards those that are regenerative and restorative, improving the health and well-being of people, planet, and animals, the report outlines ten recommendations for government action:

1. Recognise the inter-connected public health and planetary impacts of industrialised farming systems and commit to stopping the support for factory farms.

2. Ensure fiscal policies, including taxation and social policy and programs, research, and infrastructure investments, align to reflect the true health, sustainability, and animal welfare costs of livestock production systems.

3. Establish national plans to support a just transition away from industrialised livestock production towards agroecological systems that produce sustainable plant-based foods and fewer farmed animals in high welfare environments.

4. Ensure integrated, participatory, transparent, and rights-based approaches to governance and policymaking at all levels across the livestock system.

5. Introduce trade policy incentives that facilitate shorter livestock derived food (LDF) value chains and that support agroecological, regenerative and pastoral LDFs.

6. Meet the Farms Initiative Responsible Minimum Standards (FARMS) animal welfare requirements for production or procurement as a minimum.

7. End subsidies and policy support for unhealthy and unjust industrial livestock systems and redirect these to support regenerative, agroecological and pastoralist systems that deliver better human, animal, and planetary health outcomes.

8. Commit to a moratorium on factory farming within National Climate actions plans (known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)) in recognition of factory farming’s climate impacts.

9. Promote humane, healthy, and sustainable diets, including those that support an average global reduction in meat and dairy consumption and production of 50% by 2040, through the provision of healthy eating advice and other financial incentives.

10. Develop national One Health, One Welfare action plans and national antimicrobial resistance (AMR) plans that recognise the health impacts of industrialised livestock and restrict its growth