A recent Science-for-Policy Brief published by the European Commission Knowledge Centre for Migration and Demography (KCMD) looks at the historically low fertility rates in EU countries. 

For half a century, the average number of children born to women in the EU has been below the so-called replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman, which is the general minimum needed for a generation to replace itself in the future. With fertility projected to remain low, at around the current level of an average of 1.5 children per woman, EU countries are increasingly facing the challenges linked to ageing populations.

The Brief examines the main drivers of low fertility identified in research literature and highlights socio-economic shifts, gender inequality, prolonged education and career paths, changing family dynamics and norms, and the postponement of parenthood as the main factors behind declining fertility rates across the EU. 

However, the lack of a comprehensive theory to explain the declining number of children in European societies makes it difficult to project the future course of fertility and to determine the extent to which potential policy interventions can be effective in bringing fertility levels closer to the two children that Europeans aspire to have on average. 

In light of the reported findings, the Brief stresses the importance of investing in further research in all EU Member States to better understand the complexities behind observed fertility trends and the gap between desired family size and actual fertility rates. 

In order to meet the demographic challenges for public finances, social security and pension systems, it makes a significant difference whether fertility falls to very low levels of 1.1 or 1.2 births per woman or whether it is closer to the replacement level of 1.7 or 1.8 births per woman.

Reducing the gap between desired and actual family size and achieving higher birth rates in the EU above the low level of 1.5 births per woman could help mitigate these challenges. 

Yet, major policy efforts are needed now to adapt to the economic and social change in a low fertility, longevity society.