The EU population is expected to peak at 453 million people around 2026 before beginning a gradual decline. Low fertility and the old age structure are the driving forces behind a projected 5% decline in population size by 2050.

Eastern European Member States are projected to experience the most significant population decline due to low fertility, population ageing and significant emigration to Western Europe.

A JRC report emphasises that the current low birth rates in the EU will result in overall population decline, even if fertility levels would rise again.

Although some Member States experience positive net migration (immigration is higher than emigration), migration alone cannot compensate for future population decline.

A second JRC report focuses on the labour market and impacts on competitiveness. It shows that by making use of the still untapped potential of labour participation of groups that are currently underrepresented in the labour market (e.g. women, migrants, older people, young people), it is possible to offset the decline in the number of workers.

These two research report highlight the importance of pursuing both long-term mitigation actions through family and migration policies and more immediate adaptation actions through education and labour policies.

This includes investing in skills and education to enhance labour force participation rates, particularly among women and older workers. Indeed, education plays a crucial role, as higher education levels are associated with increased labour force participation and productivity.

Ultimately, a comprehensive approach that takes into account the complex interplay between demographic factors, education and labour market policies is necessary to address the challenges posed by demographic change in the EU.