The cumulative seasonal benefits of the March to May 2024 Long Rains brought above-average rainfall across the country, particularly in Kenya's arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL) counties, leading to a significant improvement in food security compared to the same period last year.

In the current period (July to September 2024), (July to September 2024), around 1 million people (5% of the ASAL counties population) are classified in IPC AFI Phase 3 or worse, including about 895,000 people (5% of the ASAL population) in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and about 43,000 people (0.3% of the ASAL population) in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency).

The above-normal Long Rains have had a significant positive impact on rangeland conditions across the region. Due to the abun-dant rainfall, there has been substantial regeneration of both pasture and browse, leading to healthy rangelands that are expected to sustain livestock for more than three months.

The key drivers of food insecurity are high prices of staple foods, the climate shocks, crop pests and diseases and conflict and insecurity.

During the projection period (October 2024 to January 2025), the food security situation is likely to deteriorate further due to the high likelihood of severe rainfall deficits during the OND (October-November-December) season in 2024, which may result in below-average harvests, especially across the northern and eastern Kenya (ASALs). Approximately, 1.7 million people (11 percent of the population analysed) are classified in IPC Phase 3 or above, including about 98,000 people classified in Phase 4 and 1.6 million in Phase 3.